Hot model: Difference between revisions

In [[climate simulation]], '''hot models''' are ones that predict that [[global warming]] will produce significantly higher temperatures than is considered plausible. The problem was first seen in the sixth phase of the [[Coupled Model Intercomparison Project]], where a fifth of the models began to 'run hot'.<ref name="Voosen 2019">{{cite news |last1=Voosen |first1=Paul |title=New climate models forecast a warming surge |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.364.6437.222 |work=Science |date=19 April 2019 |pages=222–223 |language=en |doi=10.1126/science.364.6437.222}}</ref><ref name="Hausfather et al. 2022">{{cite journal |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke |last2=Marvel |first2=Kate |last3=Schmidt |first3=Gavin A. |last4=Nielsen-Gammon |first4=John W. |last5=Zelinka |first5=Mark |title=Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem |journal=Nature |date=May 2022 |volume=605 |issue=7908 |pages=26–29 |doi=10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2 |language=en}}</ref> According to these models, average global temperatures in the [[Climate change scenario|worst case scenario]] would rise by more than 5{{nbsp}}°C above preindustrial levels by 2100,<ref name="Voosen 2021">https://www.science.org/content/article/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming</ref> with a "catastrophic" impact on human society.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Berardelli |first1=Jeff |title=Some new climate models are projecting extreme warming. Are they correct? |url=https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/some-new-climate-models-are-projecting-extreme-warming-are-they-correct/ |work=Yale Climate Connections |publisher=[[Yale University]] |date=1 July 2020}}</ref>