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2024 European Parliament election

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The 2024 European Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024.[1] This will be the tenth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first European Parliament election after Brexit.[2][3]

2024 European Parliament election
← 2019 6–9 June 2024 2029 →
All 720 seats to the European Parliament
361 seats needed for a majority
 
Official Portrait of Ursula von der Leyen (cropped).jpg
Nicolas Schmit - 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Ursula von der Leyen Nicolas Schmit TBD
Marie-Agnes
Strack-Zimmermann
Sandro Gozi
Valérie Hayer
Alliance EPP Group S&D Renew Europe Now
Leader's seat Germany[a] Luxembourg[a] Germany
France
Last election 187 seats, 21.0% 147 seats, 18.5% 98 seats, 13.0%
 
BDK Karlsruhe Nov 2023 Terry Reintke 2 cropped.jpg
Speech of the Lead Candidates (47941849351).jpg
Anders_Vistisen_portrait_2023_(3).jpg
Conclusion of the European Council meeting - 51987066887.jpg
Nicola Procaccini, June 2023.jpg
Leader Terry Reintke
Bas Eickhout 		Anders Vistisen Ryszard Legutko
Nicola Procaccini
Alliance Greens/EFA ID ECR
Leader's seat Germany
Netherlands 		Denmark Poland-10
Southern Italy
Last election 67 seats, 11.7% 76 seats, 10.8% 62 seats, 8.2%
 
Augsburger Parteitag - Walter Baier 2.jpg
Leader Walter Baier
Alliance The Left
Leader's seat Austria[a]
Last election 39 seats, 6.5%
Incumbent European Commission

Von der Leyen Commission (EPP)
EPP Group–S&D–Renew



Background

This election is expected to be one of the more contentious elections in the history of the European Parliament given the rise of far right parties in polling.[4][5] The EPP has raised eyebrows among some commentators given its efforts to charm parties in the ECR to create a broad conservative block[6] that could upset the long-standing balance which has seen the EPP share power with the center-left S&D and the centrist Renew Group.[7]

Electoral system

Attempts at electoral reform

In June 2018, the Council agreed to change the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act as amended in 2002.[8] New provisions included a mandatory 2% threshold for countries with more than 35 seats and rules to prevent voters from voting in multiple countries.[9] After the Act was adopted by the Council following consent given by the European Parliament in July 2018, not all member states ratified the Act prior to the 2019 elections, which took place under the old rules. As of 2023, the reform has yet to be ratified by Cyprus and Spain;[10] Germany only ratified in summer 2023.[11]

On 3 May 2022, the European Parliament voted to propose a new electoral law, which would contain provisions for electing 28 seats on transnational lists.[12] As of 2023, this reform has not been approved by the Council, which must approve it unanimously.[13]

Apportionment

As a result of Brexit, 27 seats from the British delegation were distributed to other countries in January 2020 (those elected in 2019, but not yet seated took their seats).[14] The other 46 seats were abolished with the total number of MEPs decreasing from 751 to 705 after that.[15]

A report in the European Parliament proposed in February 2023 and passed in June 2023 to modify the apportionment in the European Parliament and increase the number of MEPs again in order to adapt to the development of the population and preserve degressive proportionality.[16][17] The European Council will, by unanimity, take the final decision on the size of the European Parliament and each national seat quota. On 26 July 2023, the Council reached a preliminary agreement, which would increase the size of the European Parliament to 720 seats.[18] On 13 September 2023, the European Parliament consented to this decision,[19] which was adopted by the European Council on 22 September 2023.[20]

Electoral system by country

Member state Seats Date Voting
age 		Compulsory
voting 		Absentee voting Min. age for
candidacy[21] 		Constituencies Threshold[b] Electoral system[22] Candidate selection[22]
  Austria 20(+1) 9 June[23] 16 No By post 18 01 4% D'Hondt Semi-open list
  Belgium 22(+1) 9 June[24] 16[25] Above 18[26] By post and by proxy 18 03 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
  Bulgaria 17 9 June 18 No — 21 01 ~5.9%[c][27] Largest remainder[d] Semi-open list
  Croatia 12 9 June[28] 18 No — 18 01 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
  Cyprus 06 9 June[29] 18 Yes — 21 01 1.8%[30] Largest remainder[d] Open list
  Czech Republic 21 7–8 June[31] 18 No — 21 01 5% D'Hondt Semi-open list
  Denmark 15(+1) 9 June[32] 18 No By post 18 01 — D'Hondt[e] Open list
  Estonia 07 9 June[33] 18 No By post and online 21 01 — D'Hondt Open list
  Finland 15(+1) 9 June[34] 18 No By post 18 01 — D'Hondt Open list
  France 81(+2) 9 June[35] 18 No By proxy 18 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
  Germany 96 9 June[36] 16 No By post 18 1[f] — Sainte-Laguë Closed list
  Greece 21 9 June[37] 17 Yes By post 25 01 3% Largest remainder Open list
  Hungary 21 9 June[38] 18 No By post 18 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
  Ireland 14(+1) 7 June[39] 18 No — 21 03 N/A Single transferable vote
  Italy 76 8–9 June[40] 18 No — 25 05[g] 4% Largest remainder[d] Open list
  Latvia 09(+1) 8 June[41] 18 No By post 21 01 5%[42] Sainte-Laguë Open list
  Lithuania 11 9 June[43] 18 No By post 21 01 5% Largest remainder[d] Open list
  Luxembourg 06 9 June[44] 18 Yes By post 18 01 — D'Hondt Panachage
  Malta 06 8 June[45] 16 No — 18 01 N/A Single transferable vote
  Netherlands 31(+2) 6 June[46] 18 No By post and by proxy 18 01 ~3.2%[c][47] D'Hondt Semi-open list
  Poland 53(+1) 9 June 18 No — 21 13[g] 5% D'Hondt Open list
  Portugal 21 TBD 18 No — 18 01 — D'Hondt Closed list
  Romania 33 9 June[48] 18 No — 23 01 5% D'Hondt Closed list
  Slovakia 15(+1) 8 June[49] 18 No — 21 01 5% Largest remainder[h] Semi-open list
  Slovenia 09(+1) 9 June[50] 18 No By post 18 01 — D'Hondt Semi-open list
  Spain 61(+2) 9 June 18 No By post 18 01 — D'Hondt Closed list
  Sweden 21 9 June[51] 18 No By post 18 01 4% Modified Sainte-Laguë Semi-open list

Lead candidates

Spitzenkandidat system

In the run-up to the 2014 European Parliament elections a new informal system was unveiled for the selection of the European Commission President dictating that whichever party group gained the most seats would see their lead candidate become President of the Commission.[52] In 2014, the candidate of the largest group, Jean-Claude Juncker, was eventually nominated and elected as Commission President.[53] European party leaders aimed to reintroduce the system in 2019, with them selecting lead candidates and organizing a televised debate between those candidates.[54] In the aftermath of the election German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was chosen as Commission President, even though she had not been a candidate prior to the election, while Manfred Weber, lead candidate for the EPP, which had gained the most seats, was not nominated.[55] Following the non-application of the system in 2019, some have called for the system to be revived, in the upcoming elections.[56][57][58]

The EPP,[59] PES,[60] EGP,[61] and PEL[62] have announced their intensions to nominate a main candidate in 2024, while ECR and ID have rejected doing so.[63]

Overview

European political parties EP Group Lead candidate Election programme
EPP European People's Party EPP Group Ursula von der Leyen "Our Europe"
PES Party of European Socialists S&D Nicolas Schmit "The Europe We Want"
ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party Renew TBD
EDP European Democratic Party Sandro Gozi "Reinventing Europe"
EGP European Green Party Greens/EFA Bas Eickhout, Terry Reintke "Courage to Change"
EFA European Free Alliance Maylis Roßberg [de], Raül Romeva TBD
ID Identity and Democracy Party ID None
ECR European Conservatives and Reformists Party ECR
ECPM European Christian Political Movement Valeriu Ghilețchi None
PEL Party of the European Left The Left Walter Baier "Our Moment"
European political parties not recognised by the EU EP Group Lead candidate Election programme
PPEU European Pirate Party Greens/EFA Marcel Kolaja, Anja Hirschel None
Volt Volt Europa TBD "Future Made in Europe"

European People's Party

The centre-right EPP held its congress in Bucharest on 6-7 March 2024 to elect its presidential candidate and adopt its election programme.[64] Nominees required the backing of their own member party and not more than two other EPP member parties from EU countries, with nominations closing on February 21.[65]

On 19 February 2024, Ursula von der Leyen announced her intention to run, supported by the CDU.[66] On 7 March von der Leyen was elected presidential candidate with 400 votes in favour, 89 against and 10 blank, out of the 737 EPP delegates.[67] Among others, it is believed that the French and Slovenian delegations voted against.[68][69]

Party of European Socialists

The centre-left PES held its congress in Rome on March 2. Nominees required the backing of nine PES full member parties or organisations, with nominations closing on January 17.[70]

On 18 January, the PES announced that the Luxembourgish European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit was the sole nominee to meet the nominating requirements.[71] He was then nominated on March 2 during the party congress, along with the adoption of the election programme.[72]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

During the 20–21 March 2024 extraordinary congress in Brussels, the ALDE party will elect its presidential candidate and will adopt its election programme.[73] On 7 March 2024, following months of speculation, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced that she had rejected the offer from ALDE to be the party's Spitzenkandidat.[74] Luxembourg’s former Prime Minister Xavier Bettel announced that he is not interested in the post either.[75]

European Democratic Party

During the 8 March 2024 Convention in Florence, the European Democratic Party nominated Sandro Gozi as its lead candidate and approved its election programme.[76]

European Green Party

During the 2–4 February 2024 congress in Lyon, the European Green Party elected Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout as its two presidential candidates and adopted its election programme.[77][78][79] Nominees were Bas Eickhout, Elīna Pinto, Terry Reintke, Benedetta Scuderi.[80][81]

European Free Alliance

In October 2023, the congress of the European Free Alliance elected Maylis Roßberg and Raül Romeva as its presidential candidates, and adopted its election programme.[82][83]

Party of the European Left

During the 24–25 February 2024 congress in Ljubljana,[84] the PEL elected Walter Baier as its presidential candidate and adopted its election programme.[85]

European Christian Political Movement

In a meeting held on 24 February 2024, the European Christian Political Movement appointed party president Valeriu Ghilețchi as its lead candidate for the European Commission.[86]

European Pirate Party

At its General Assembly in Luxembourg in January 2024, the European Pirate Party nominated Marcel Kolaja and Anja Hirschel as lead candidates.[87]

Volt Europa

On 27 November, Volt Europa adopted its European election programme at its General Assembly in Paris. It is still unclear when the party will elect its top candidates.[88]

Campaign

The future of Ursula von der Leyen

The upcoming elections mean the future of the Von der Leyen Commission is uncertain. Should the spitzenkandidat system be used in 2024, Ursula von der Leyen, the current European Commission President, may face an uphill battle to make it to a second term. Although Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has hinted he would support von der Leyen should she choose to run for the position again,[89] his coalition government has also agreed to support the spitzenkandidat system.[90] This poses a challenge to von der Leyen's candidacy as this gives room to Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People's Party in the European Parliament, and fellow German CDU/CSU member, to propose alternative candidates, such as President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. Another option was for von der Leyen to run in the election for the Parliament to secure the support of her party.[91][92] But this was ruled out in September 2023.[93] She has been supported for a second term by the Leader of the Christian Democratic Union Friedrich Merz.[94]

On 19 February 2024, von der Leyen announced her intention to seek a second term.[66]

The future of Charles Michel

In January 2024, Charles Michel announced he would step down as president of the European Council to run for the European Parliament instead.[95] This means European Union leaders would potentially discuss his successor in the summer.[96] If elected to the European Parliament he would have had to step down anyway because of the dual mandate.[97] His mandate had been to set to expire in November 2024.[98] For this unanticipated decision Michel was criticised by EU officials and diplomats.[99] He was criticised by his political ally Sophie in 't Veld who questioned his "credibility".[100] This timing was reportedly set to mitigate potential disruptions from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country would be scheduled to take over the rotating presidency of the European Council on 1 July.[101] On 26 January 2024, Michel withdrew his candidacy and thus delayed his departure.[102]

Opinion polling and seat projections

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 European Parliament election

Controversies

Conflict with Portuguese national holiday

The dates chosen for the elections conflict with a long weekend in Portugal, where Portugal Day, a national holiday, is celebrated on 10 June, which is expected to suppress turnout.[103] Despite an attempt by Portuguese leaders to find a compromise, no change was made to the default date of 6–9 June,[104] which required unanimity to be changed.

Qatargate

The ongoing Qatargate corruption scandal, which began in December 2022, has destabilized the European Parliament following the arrest of several MEPs including Marc Tarabella; Andrea Cozzolino and Eva Kaili which was stripped of her vice presidency. Other suspects in the case include Francesco Giorgi, the parliamentary assistant of MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Pier Antonio Panzeri, founder of the Fight Impunity NGO; Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, head of the No Peace Without Justice NGO; and Luca Visentini, head of the International Trade Union Confederation.[105][106]

Hungary

A majority of European Parliament MEPs voted for a nonbinding resolution, which demands that the European Commission considers that Hungary be stripped of its EU voting rights.[107] The European Parliament views Hungary as a "hybrid regime of electoral autocracy" since 2022 and considers Hungary according to Article 7.1 of the Treaty on European Union in clear risk of a serious breach of the Treaty on European Union.[108][109]

Greece

At the beginning of March 2024, Greeks living abroad received a promotional email from MEP and New Democracy candidate Anna-Michelle Assimakopoulou, which triggered a wave of criticism that the law on the protection of personal data had been violated and that data on postal voters had been illegally passed on by the Ministry of the Interior.[110]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Not running for a European Parliament seat
  2. ^ This is the legal threshold. The share of the vote needed to win a seat may be higher than this in some countries.
  3. ^ a b 1 divided by the number of seats.
  4. ^ a b c d Hare quota with residual fit by largest remainders
  5. ^ Denmark allows for electoral alliances between separate party lists.
  6. ^ Seats are apportioned to parties nationally. A party can choose to only stand in some of the 16 states and have its national seat count be subapportioned to those states. Only the CDU and the CSU have done this in previous elections.
  7. ^ a b Seats are apportioned to parties nationally, then subapportioned to the constituencies.
  8. ^ Droop quota with residual fit by largest remainders

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Further reading


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