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== Polls ==
== Polls ==
{{Main|Opinion polling for the next German federal election}}
{{Main|Opinion polling for the next German federal election}}
In Germany, there are regular polls during the whole of the legislative period. Polls determined by Germany's major polling agencies [[Allensbach Institute|Allensbach]], Emnid, [[Forsa Institute|Forsa]], Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS and Infratest Dimap suggest that, were the next election to take place in October 2012, Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU would be the leading party with about 36.8% share of the vote. [[Social Democratic Party of Germany|The Social Democrats]] would reach about 28.7%, [[Alliance '90/The Greens|the Greens]] 12.7%, [[The Left (Germany)|the Left]] 6.9%, [[Pirate Party Germany|Pirate party]] 5.8% and the [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|Free Democratic Party]] about 4.6% of the votes cast (other parties: 4.6%). Every poll suggests that neither CDU/CSU and FDP nor SPD and Greens, partners in the 1998–2005 [[Gerhard Schröder|Schröder]] government, would have a majority of seats.<ref>[http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm A rather up-to-date compilation of poll results by wahlrecht.de]</ref>
In Germany, there are regular polls during the whole of the legislative period. Polls determined by Germany's major polling agencies [[Allensbach Institute|Allensbach]], Emnid, [[Forsa Institute|Forsa]], Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS and Infratest Dimap suggest that, were the next election to take place in October 2012, Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU would be the leading party with about .% share of the vote. [[Social Democratic Party of Germany|The Social Democrats]] would reach about .%, [[Alliance '90/The Greens|the Greens]] 12.%, [[The Left (Germany)|the Left]] 6.%, [[Pirate Party Germany|Pirate party]] 5.% and the [[Free Democratic Party (Germany)|Free Democratic Party]] about 4.6% of the votes cast (other parties: 4.6%). Every poll suggests that neither CDU/CSU and FDP nor SPD and Greens, partners in the 1998–2005 [[Gerhard Schröder|Schröder]] government, would have a majority of seats.<ref>[http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm A rather up-to-date compilation of poll results by wahlrecht.de]</ref>


== References ==
== References ==

Revision as of 09:18, 12 October 2012

Next German federal election
← 2009 Between 1 September and 27 October 2013
All 598 seats (plus any overhangs) in the Bundestag
300 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Angela Merkel Peer Steinbrück Philipp Rösler
Party CDU/CSU SPD FDP
Leader since 10 April 2000 28 September 2012 (as chancellor candidate) 13 May 2011
Leader's seat Stralsund – Nordvorpommern – Rügen Nordrhein-Westfalen (List) (did not run in 2009)
Last election 239 seats, 33.8% 146 seats, 23.0% 93 seats, 14.6%
 
Leader Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger Claudia Roth and Cem Özdemir Bernd Schlömer
Party Left Greens Pirates
Leader since 2 June 2012 2 October 2004 and 15 November 2008 28 April 2012
Leader's seat Sachsen (List)
―
(did not run in 2009) 		Bayern (List)
―
Stuttgart I (lost election) 		(did not run in 2009)
Last election 76 seats, 11.9% 68 seats, 10.7% 0 seats, 2.0%
Incumbent Chancellor

Angela Merkel
CDU/CSU



This article is part of a series on the
Politics of
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Political ideologies

The next German federal election will be an election to determine the 598 (or more) members of the 18th Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany.[3] If it is a regular election, it will be held on a Sunday or holiday between 1 September and 27 October 2013. It may be held earlier or later under exceptional circumstances.

In the last federal election in 2009, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU); its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU); and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) won the election with Angela Merkel as Chancellor and Guido Westerwelle as Vice-Chancellor. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) however suffered its worst defeat, SPD leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded[4] and announced his intention to become head of the opposition in the Bundestag.[5]

Date

The date of the next German federal election is governed by the constitution (the Basic Law) and the Federal Election Law (Bundeswahlgesetz).

Article 39 of the Basic Law states that the Bundestag shall be elected between 46 and 48 months after the beginning of the legislative period.[6] As the 17th Bundestag convened on 27 October 2009, the next election will be scheduled between 27 August and 27 October 2013.[7] As the Federal Election Law states that the election day must be a Sunday or public holiday,[8] the dates of 1, 8, 15, 22, 29 September and 3 (Day of German Unity), 6, 13, 20 or 27 October would be within the scope of the Basic Law and election law.

To avoid school holidays, a date in late September is usually chosen; this would make 15 or 22 September 2013 the most likely dates.[9]

The Basic Law provides for three possibilities to shorten or prolong the legislative period, and therefore move election day, which have rarely or never been used.

In case of an imminent or ongoing attack on Germany the Federal President is to declare the Case of Defence (article 115a of the Basic Law). In this case, the legislative period ends six months after the end of the Case of Defence (article 115h).[6]

The more probable cases of shortening the legislative period are provided for in articles 63 and 68 of the Basic Law. The former states that the Federal President may (or may not) dissolve the Bundestag if during a vacancy in the office of Federal Chancellor the Bundestag fails to elect a new Chancellor with a majority of votes within fourteen days after the Federal President proposing a new Chancellor. The latter article allows the Federal Chancellor to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag after the Chancellor has lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. The President is once again free to choose whether to dissolve the Bundestag or not.[6]

Of these three possibilities of changing the legislative period of a Bundestag, only the dissolution according to article 68 has been used in practice (1972, 1983 and 2005).[10]

In case of a dissolution the snap election must take place within sixty days. During the Case of Defence the dissolution of the Bundestag is not possible.[6]

Electoral system

In general, the Bundestag is elected using a mixed member proportional system. Voters have two votes: With their first they elect a member of Bundestag for their constituency, with the second they vote for a party. The seats in the Bundestag are generally distributed according to the second (party) votes. A party who wins more districts in a given state than it is entitled to according to the number of party votes it received in that state keeps these "overhang" seats.[8]

This electoral system must be changed under an order of the Federal Constitutional Court. The court stated that a provision in the Federal Election Law which makes it possible for a party to lose seats due to more votes violates the constitutional guarantee of the electoral system being equal and direct.[11]

This change should have been made by 30 June 2011, but the government failed to present appropriate legislation in time to make this deadline. A new electoral law was finally enacted in late 2011, but declared unconstitutional once again by the Federal Constitutional Court upon lawsuits from the opposition parties and a group of some 4,000 private citizens.[12]

Chancellor-candidates

Although the "chancellor-candidates" (Kanzlerkandidaten) play a very important role in election campaigns, their "office" is not regulated in any law. So it is up to each party to determine how (and if at all) to name a "chancellor-candidate".

The SPD names a chancellor-candidate while the CDU and the CSU name a common one. The smaller Bundestag parties (FDP, Left and Greens) usually[13] do not name a chancellor-candidate as it is very improbable for such a candidate to actually be elected chancellor. They instead name one or two persons (Spitzenkandidaten) who are to become the faces of that party's campaign. Fringe parties sometimes name a chancellor-candidate[14] although there is nearly no chance for them to win seats in the Bundestag, not to speak of their candidate to become chancellor.

While a sitting chancellor is usually named chancellor-candidate for his or her own party, the main opposition party's process to determine their chancellor-candidate differs. Most times, such a person is determined in an inner party circle and then anointed in a party convention.

As the CDU/CSU is the main government party, CDU chairwoman (and incumbent chancellor) Angela Merkel is unlikely to be challenged as chancellor-candidate. In the SPD, the situation was a bit less clear: There were four candidates in the discussion. While Sigmar Gabriel, the party chairman, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the parliamentary caucus leader, and Peer Steinbrück, former minister-president of Nordrhein-Westfalen and former federal minister of Finance, were quasi-official contenders for the candidacy, incumbent Nordrhein-Westfalen minister-president Hannelore Kraft had denied interest in the candidacy.[15]

Gabriel, Steinmeier and Steinbrück all have a bad electoral record as they all had led their party into painful defeats in state or general elections (Gabriel and Steinbrück lost their inherited minister-president offices in 2003 and 2005, Steinmeier failed as a chancellor-candidate in 2009). On 28 September 2012, the party announced that Peer Steinbrück would be the chancellor-candidate.[16]

Polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next German federal election

In Germany, there are regular polls during the whole of the legislative period. Polls determined by Germany's major polling agencies Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS and Infratest Dimap suggest that, were the next election to take place in October 2012, Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU would be the leading party with about 37.0% share of the vote. The Social Democrats would reach about 29.3%, the Greens 12.3%, the Left 6.8%, Pirate party 5.4% and the Free Democratic Party about 4.6% of the votes cast (other parties: 4.6%). Every poll suggests that neither CDU/CSU and FDP nor SPD and Greens, partners in the 1998–2005 Schröder government, would have a majority of seats.[17]

References

  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference autogenerated2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ Cite error: The named reference autogenerated3 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ "Der Wahltermin für die Bundestagswahl 2009". Der Bundeswahlleiter. Retrieved 5 January 2009. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  4. ^ "Merkel's rival concedes defeat in German election". The Daily Telegraph. London. 27 September 2009. Retrieved 20 May 2010.
  5. ^ "Steinmeier wird Oppositionsführer". Die Zeit. 27 September 2009.
  6. ^ a b c d Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany. Official translation. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  7. ^ Stenographic protocol of the first session of the Bundestag. 27 October 2009. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  8. ^ a b Federal Election Law. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  9. ^ Dates for elections in Germany. Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  10. ^ A Question of Confidence – The Dissolution of the Bundestag. Goethe-Institut. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  11. ^ Federal Constitutional Court decision on the Federal Election Law
  12. ^ Decision of the Federal Constitutional Court. 25 July 2012. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  13. ^ The FDP named their chairman, Guido Westerwelle, chancellor-candidate in 2002.
  14. ^ For example, the Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität with its chancellor-candidate Helga Zepp-LaRouche in the 2009 election. See Die BüSo wird Recht behalten: Weltfinanzsystem kurz vor der Desintegration!. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  15. ^ Steinbrück, Steinmeier - oder doch Hannelore Kraft?. Augsburger Allgemeine. 3 June 2012. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  16. ^ "Steinbrück wird Kanzlerkandidat" (in German). ARD. 28 September 2012. Retrieved 28 September 2012. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |trans_title= ignored (|trans-title= suggested) (help)
  17. ^ A rather up-to-date compilation of poll results by wahlrecht.de
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