Modi Moscow message: Deepen ties, no solution on battlefield

In Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in September 2022, Modi had told Putin that “this is not the era of war” — a line that was later used in the G20’s Bali declaration that November, and by Western leaders and interlocutors to press Russia to end the war.

As a preface to the meeting, both had warm exchanges. Putin told Modi, interpreters by their side, “Param dost (Dear friend)… You have a lot of ideas. You are very energetic, and you know how to get results for the benefit of India and the Indian people.”

“And the results are evidence, India is a confident, third largest economy in the world, and the biggest country in the world, in terms of population. 23 million babies are born in India every year, this means people are planning families and they have a planning horizon which is quite extensive. And expanding means that people are feeling confident and they are sure of stability. So I congratulate you and…I am very happy to see you again,” the Russian President said.

Modi responded, “This is such a happy moment that you invited me to your home…I am very grateful for this. India is the mother of democracy, almost 650 million voted in this elections…It is the first time in India, over the last 60 years, when the government is re-elected for the third time. The first time it happened was with Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. And now, 60 years later, I have got this chance that people of India gave me this opportunity to serve India.”

“I have been working for 10 years in the government, and my principle is reform, perform and transform. The people voted for these very principles, and I’m confident, I believe that in my third term, I’m going to work three times as much,” Modi said.

Modi’s visit assumes significance as it comes after the G7 summit last month in Italy, where he met US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan then visited New Delhi to meet with his counterpart Ajit Doval and the PM.

Now, with Russia having an upper hand in the war and a possibility of Donald Trump returning as the US President later this year, Modi’s visit is being seen as Delhi positioning itself for what could follow six months from now.

The Ukraine war has put India in a delicate diplomatic position with its Western allies. New Delhi has walked the tightrope, not explicitly condemning the Russian invasion but calling for an international probe into the Bucha massacre in the early weeks of the war, and expressing concern over threats of nuclear war issued by Russian leaders.

India abstained from voting against Russia in several resolutions at the United Nations Security Council.

Delhi has consistently maintained it is on the side of “peace, respect for international law and support for the UN Charter”, and “strongly advocates a return to dialogue and diplomacy”. India has reiterated that respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states is an essential element of the international order, a euphemism for questioning Russia’s conduct.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi walk during their meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence near Moscow, Russia July 8, 2024. (Reuters)

Significantly, Modi’s visit to Russia comes as leaders of the 32 nations in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) gather in Washington DC from July 9-11 to celebrate 75 years of the anti-Russia military alliance.

The Prime Minister was received by First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Denis Manturov who accompanied him to the hotel from the airport in the same car.

Sources pointed out that Manturov is senior to the Deputy Prime Minister who received the Chinese President during his visit to Russia, and New Delhi was reading this as a special gesture. Incidentally, Putin’s first foreign visit after being re-elected in March this year, in what is seen by the West as a sham election, was to China and he met Chinese President Xi Jinping for the second time last week in Astana — their second meeting in four months.

On Tuesday, Modi will also lay a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier in the Kremlin and will visit the Rosatom Pavilion at the exhibition venue in Moscow.

Modi in Moscow | Follow latest updates here

These engagements will be followed by a restricted level talks between the two leaders on Tuesday, which will then be followed by delegation-level talks led by the Prime Minister and the Russian President.

Sources said that the focus of the visit is the economic agenda — energy, trade, manufacturing, fertilizers. While defence and energy are the important drivers of the relationship — taking the bilateral trade volume to an all-time high of about $65 billion — an irritant in ties has been the presence of Indians on the frontlines of the war.

Before the visit, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra had said that the issue of “early discharge of Indian nationals who have been misled into the service of the Russian army” is also expected to figure in the discussions. Four Indians have been killed and 10 have returned, but another 40 are believed to be still in Russia.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, India has been buying large amounts of Russian oil at a discount to cushion the inflationary impact of rising crude prices. In the face of international criticism, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has repeatedly said that India would continue to buy Russian oil in the interest of Indian consumers.

Before the war, the bilateral trade target was set at $30 billion by 2025. However, bilateral trade reached an all-time high of $65.70 billion in FY 2023-24.

In the area of nuclear energy, Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant units 1 and 2 have already become operational and work is progressing on two more units. The two sides will also take stock of civilian nuclear cooperation.

Modi last went to Russia for the Eastern Economic Forum meeting in Vladivostok in September 2019; Putin last visited India in December 2021 for the annual bilateral summit.