Not so ‘Upyogi’? Results reversal comes as reality check for UP CM

The setback that BJP has received in UP, has come as a stunning reality check for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The Yogi factor — a combination of strong law and order, development and aggressive Hindutva — which was a strong pitch used by BJP in addition to the Modi factor appeared to find resonance on the ground during the campaign.
But the ‘double engine’ faltered this time around and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s catchphrase ‘PDA’ targeting Picchade (backwards), Dalits and Alpsankhyak (minorities) had a deeper connect with voters, especially Dalits and backwards.Yogi has spearheaded BJP’s consecutive victories in five back-to-back elections in the state — 2017 and 2022 state polls, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and two local body polls before the reversal of the trend.
“Since Yogi had been credited with the wins, he will have to take the responsibility for the dismal show also,” says a political observer, adding “but he cannot be made a scapegoat.” The selection of candidates was done ignoring anti-incumbency and brewing resentment against them and has emerged as one of the main reasons for the loss.
A party insider said that Yogi stands clear as the candidate selection responsibility rested with the central leadership. “Yogi is seen as a saviour for BJP. He had no say in the selection of candidates. Those who won despite the brewing anger against them will definitely credit Yogi’s contribution along with the Modi factor when they introspect the reasons for their success,” he added. In every election rally that he addressed in UP this time, PM Narendra Modi not only praised the Yogi model of law and order that prepared a conducive atmosphere for investment in the state, but also highlighted his development initiatives.
In his quest to get improved numbers, he knows which is the most crucial “engine” he could have banked on. “However, this “double engine” narrative failed to attract voters in the state. This could be because it is a muchflogged slogan and Yogi has reached the halfway mark of the second term of his govt,” says another analyst. To his credit, he was one of the most sought-after campaigners for the party, having addressed nearly 170 rallies — not only in UP but also outside.
Before that, he had already visited all 75 districts. But it clearly was not enough and his position in the party’s top echelon will take a beating. The extent could be a matter of debate. However, the narrative set by Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in the middle of the campaign is back in discussion. While addressing rallies, Kejriwal claimed that after BJP’s win, Yogi will be removed like several other BJP CMs.
According to UP watchers, the Delhi CM tried to create a fake narrative that all was not well within the BJP and the top leadership was wary of Yogi because of his growing popularity and it might have impacted a section of voters. “Although he was playing on Yogi’s popularity, giving a message to the latter’s admirers and voters that if you vote for the saffron party, your ‘favourite’ CM would be dispensed with, BJP came out with a rebuttal. However, with BJP losing ground in these polls, this narrative is bound to return to haunt the party,” says a BJP insider.
His name also came up during discussions around Thakur protests during the election. The hype around the protest likely affected the party’s prospects, especially in the first two rounds. “But he was not alone. UP BJP’s inability to assess the intensity of the protest will also be discussed in the same breath,” the analyst says and adds it was because of Yogi that the extent of damage was curtailed. Seats won by BJP do reflect the same, he further says.
While Yogi is in the third year of his second tenure and his welfare measures have reached the last strata of the society, his govt is yet to earn the trust of the minority community, as apparent from the voting pattern. “This would be a task cut out for his govt to bridge that gap,” says a political analyst. However, while making the governance more robust, the Yogi govt must be wary of its image as being “over-dependent” on bureaucracy. “Ignoring party workers and people’s representatives was a reason quoted for the lack of enthusiasm among party cadre,” he adds.