We are starting a position in a market-leading renewable energy company

Published Thu, Jun 27 20241:14 PM EDTUpdated 5 Hours Ago

We're initiating a position in Nextracker , buying 350 shares at roughly $48.18. Following Thursday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 350 shares of NXT with a weighting of about 0.5%. Nextracker makes solar tracker systems that allow huge utility-scale rows of solar panels to rotate and follow the sun's movement across the sky throughout the day, maximizing their power generation. It's the "backbone" of any solar power system, as management would say. We're using proceeds from Thursday's exit of Foot Locker to fund this addition. We're calling up Nextracker from the Bullpen , viewing its 24% pullback over the past couple of weeks as a good entry point to start a new position. As you can tell by its recent trading, this is a highly volatile name that is sensitive to interest rates and government policy. It's why we are starting this position on the smaller side, leaving plenty of room to scale over time. Nextracker stands out for its leadership in a fast-growing market. Its original innovation was a single-row tracker technology that allows each row of panels to move independently, rather than all in unison. While this was once considered too expensive, Nextracker was able to lower its input pricing to the point where they're now much more competitive. Over the years, the company added additional features to its product line of integrated hardware and software. Some of these features include self-powering systems, software that helps improve the energy yield on uneven terrain or bad weather conditions, and equipment that protects solar panels during hail storms, which is one of the leading causes of panel breakage. In response to customers needing something to mitigate hail damage risk, Nextracker developed an industry-first "hail stow" technology. Its most advanced system is fully automated and can provide up to a 75-degree rotation angle. Nextracker is the global market share leader in this space, with the highest-quality and most reliable product with the lowest install cost, operating cost, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is a measure of lifetime costs divided by energy production. Its U.S. business accounts for roughly two-thirds of the company's revenue. The international market is more competitive and its margins are lower than the corporate average, but the company believes there are opportunities to gain market share and pricing over time. The company reported a strong set of fourth-quarter results in May, with revenues up 42% year over year, much higher than expected, and adjusted EBITDA of $160 million versus $134 million expected. On adjusted earnings, analysts expected the company to make 68 cents per share, but it earned 96 cents per share. NXT YTD mountain Nextracker YTD For the full-year fiscal 2025, Nextracker management guided revenues in line but adjusted EBITDA ahead of estimates and adjusted EPS below estimates at the midpoint. However, some analysts pointed to management's strong execution since becoming a public company, raising guidance each quarter in fiscal 2024, as a sign that guidance could be conservative. What makes solar, and the renewable industry at large, so appealing is that energy usage has increased dramatically over the past few years, driven by growth in data centers, electrification of appliances and vehicles with the need for more charging stations, and reindustrialization across the United States. It's one of the reasons why we have been so bullish on Eaton . In a recent note by UBS, the analyst points out that Amazon , Meta , Microsoft , and Google represented 40% of total U.S. utility-scale solar demand over the last five years. Just four companies. Why are they huge buyers? These mega-cap tech companies are committed to 100% renewable power or clean energy. They are committed to decarbonizing. But here's the thing: their needs may dramatically increase in the years ahead because of AI, which we know uses 10 times more electricity per query than a traditional Google search. And training has much higher power needs than your traditional cloud infrastructure. UBS argues that if these companies are in the early stages of exponential electricity demand growth, we should see demand for renewable projects increase along with it. Most will come from utility-scale solar projects that need tracker systems from either Nextracker or a competitor. Solar projects are a solution to these demand challenges because it is the lowest-cost option for new power. Its why CEO Dan Shugar explained on the last earnings call that solar deployments are accelerating in most of the world. Shugar's positive view is also based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts of a 5% annual increase in new power generation needs over the next five years, and solar being the fastest growing energy technology with a 26% compound annual growth rate over the next five years. Nextracker's record backlog of over $4 billion, up from $2.6 billion, surely supports this view. Even with all this growth happening at Nextracker and in the industry at large, we're talking about a stock that trades at only 16 times the midpoint of its adjusted EPS outlook. If the stock can trade up to 18 times the high end of its full-year earnings guidance, the stock will trade at $55. We'll set our price target at that level and note it is still $5 below where the stock traded in mid-June. The company has a strong liquidity position, which matters in this industry. Solaredge got slammed Tuesday after offering convertible notes and took down the whole group with it. Last quarter, Nextracker had about $470 million in cash and $150 of debt on the balance sheet and generated more than $400 million of cash flow over the full year. The company is not allowed to pay dividends or repurchase stock until 2026 due to the rules related to the spin from Flex , so what it can do instead build cash and use what's leftover for disciplined mergers and acquisitions. Last week, it announced it paid $119 million to buy Ojjo, a renewable energy company specializing in foundation technology and services used in utility-scale ground-mount applications for solar power generation. Putting it all together, we are interested in renewables and solar stocks because energy needs are increasing around the world. Nextracker stands out to us in the group because of its technology leadership, strong balance sheet, and track record of execution. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) 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