How might a Labour revival in Scotland affect the balance of power in the UK?

The latest Savanta poll for The Scotsman marks a minor moment of history in that it’s the first time in decades that the Labour Party has outpolled the Scottish National Party (SNP) both for elections to Westminster and for the regional list section of the elections to the Holyrood parliament. A turning point, in other words.

The change comes at a time of transition within Scottish politics, with the fieldwork being undertaken during the process of John Swinney taking over from Humza Yousaf as SNP leader and first minister – a change that involved some speculation and a little turbulence along the way. It suggests that significant shifts in the balance of political power in Scotland, and across the UK as a whole, will be witnessed in the coming months and years...

It’s always important not to read too much into one poll and instead to examine the trends, but the course of the data over the past year or so does tend to indicate something of a Labour revival alongside a weak SNP, as common sense would suggest.

In power since 2007, with a divided and enervated opposition, the SNP has dominated the scene to a remarkable degree. Indeed, the fiercest and most momentous debates in Scotland have been between different factions of the SNP, covering the personal rift between Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, the strategy to secure and win a second independence referendum, transgender rights, and relations with the Scottish Greens, the SNP’s latterly unhappy coalition partner.

Now, though, after being in power since 2007 and suffering setbacks, splits, financial scandals, and a bitter leadership contest last year, the SNP looks exhausted. To be fair, polling in the mid-30s is probably quite encouraging given the scale of the bad news the SNP has endured ever since Sturgeon quit and the police started sniffing around – at least in comparison with the miserable showing of the Tories in England (who are barely more popular now than they are in traditionally hostile Scotland).

It’s highly encouraging. On the Savanta projection, Labour would jump from its present single Scottish MP to 29, with the SNP sliding down from its dominant 48 to just 17. In a tighter election than seems likely, it would help Keir Starmer to secure a working majority; if he wins a landslide, then it will be a truly national one. (A slump in SNP Commons representation would also lose the party about a half a million pounds in public funding, plus its routine presence at Prime Minister’s Questions and on Commons committees.)

It’s possible that, by 2026, the UK, Wales and Scotland would all have Labour or Labour-led administrations, with Labour holding London, the West Midlands, and all of the metro mayoralties except Tees Valley, plus the greater number of local authorities. Only seven years or so after the party was written off for a generation following the 2019 disaster, Labour will enjoy political hegemony of historic proportions.

So far as another independence referendum is concerned, Yousaf won the argument that if the SNP wins the majority of seats in Scotland in the next Westminster general election, it will demand that the power to hold a referendum is transferred to the Scottish parliament. That doesn’t seem likely to transpire.

That’s trickier because Scotland’s system of modified proportional representation makes it difficult for any party to govern on its own. Also, the next planned general election in Scotland isn’t until 2026, which could allow time enough for Swinney to stabilise things and to concentrate less on independence and “culture wars” in favour of the more prosaic priorities of the people – the NHS, the cost of living and so on.

His decision to drop the implementation of the controversial Gender Recognition Bill is a step in that direction. As the leader of a minority administration, after Yousaf summarily ended the deal with the Scottish Greens, Swinney will necessarily have to be more cautious with fresh legislation.

The SNP ructions have made notably little difference to sentiment there. The latest Savanta figure, accounting for don’t knows, has 52 per cent against and 48 per cent in favour – a balance that lies within the margin of error and provides an unpromising starting point for either side. Whichever side won, there would be no end to the arguments.

There is some agitation, from Salmond’s Alba vehicle and other quarters, for a more aggressive campaign, with some advocating an “unlawful” referendum, non-implementation of British laws, or even a unilateral declaration of independence. Such bold stratagems might succeed, but there’s no necessary reason to think they’d change minds.

A “coalition of chaos”, as the Tories describe it, at Westminster, whereby even a denuded cohort of SNP MPs could use their parliamentary leverage in a hung parliament to force Starmer to concede a second independence referendum (the last was held in 2014, when the proposition was lost by 45 to 55 per cent). Few commentators expect such a situation to arise in the Commons, unless the government stages a spirited recovery and the opinion polls are about as wrong as they were during previous polling debacles, such as in 1970, 2015 or 1992.

If Swinney’s luck holds further, then by sheer force of argument and frustration at the Westminster system, the SNP will be able to boost the half or so of the Scottish population who express a preference into something like a sustainable mandate for radical constitutional change. (The Brexit referendum shows how a narrow margin can fail to end the argument.)

Given such a turn of events, then Swinney would, against the odds, win the prize of national freedom that eluded both Salmond and Sturgeon, and be the first first minister of a Scottish sovereign state, looking towards EU membership. But, on balance, it’s more likely that this lacklustre figure will have to carry the can for successive defeats at Westminster and Holyrood until either Kate Forbes or Stephen Flynn takes over and plots a new course for the movement.

A spell of protracted Tory unpopularity and rough times for a Starmer administration would make for more propitious conditions for the nationalists from around 2030 onwards.