Institute for the Study of War

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with former US President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on July 19 and discussed an end-state to the war in Ukraine. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/ebSzGr7T Key Takeaways: Ukrainian drones struck a Russian airfield in Rostov Oblast on the night of July 19 to 20. Russian Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to use meetings with Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers to attempt to rehabilitate the MoD's image among pro-war Russian ultranationalists and portray Belousov as an effective manager of the MoD. Russian authorities are likely trying to strengthen coercive measures aimed at impressing migrants facing deportation into military service. Spanish authorities arrested three individuals accused of conducting cyberattacks as part of a prominent pro-Russian hacking group that consistently targets Ukraine and NATO states supporting Ukraine. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Donetsk City. Kremlin-affiliated business-focused outlet Kommersant reported on July 19 that low quality machine parts grounded five Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft.

NEW: The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting several Houthi military targets in al Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 20 in retaliation for the July 18 Houthi drone attack targeting Tel Aviv. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/eutCN9Ka Key Takeaways: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 99th Division operated in Gaza City over the past week and seized weapons in buildings surrounding UNWRA headquarters in Tal al Hawa. Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least five locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 19. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least eight attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 19.

NEW: Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesperson Chen Binhua accused the DPP of intentionally distorting information about the PRC’s recent legal guidelines for punishing Taiwanese separatism and generating undeserved fear among the Taiwanese public. Read more in the new edition of our China-Taiwan Weekly Update: https://lnkd.in/ei6efMgY Additional Key Takeaways: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) spokesperson Sun Li-fang warned about the PRC’s weaponization of AI and deepfakes to conduct cognitive warfare operations. PRC state media promoted “high-quality development,” self-reliance, and overcoming “obstacles” to economic reform ahead of the CCP Central Committee’s Third Plenum. The CCP is trying to shore up perceptions of a weak economy and lay the groundwork for upcoming economic reforms because its domestic legitimacy increasingly rests on its ability to deliver economic prosperity. A PRC-Philippine agreement signed after the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on July 2 set up a direct presidential-level line of communication for bilateral crisis management. The hotline may provide a mechanism for escalation management but does not indicate a change in the PRC’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea. The PRC and Russia conducted joint naval exercises in the South China Sea concurrently with a joint naval patrol in the north Pacific.

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated the importance of developing an international consensus for pursuing peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Read more in the July 19, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: https://lnkd.in/eqgc7-G4 Additional Key Takeaways: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban appears to be augmenting several Russian information operations amid continued efforts to present himself as a possible future mediator between Russia and Ukraine. New United Kingdom (UK) Defense Secretary John Healey stated on July 19 that Ukraine can use UK-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia, despite previous reports that the UK had not permitted Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia. The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. The Russian government is reportedly considering stricter measures to directly censor critical voices on Russian social media. Russian authorities continue to propose stricter migration legislation as Russia's ultranationalists continue to espouse xenophobic rhetoric and complain about the Russian government's perceived lenient migration policy. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka. Disorganization continues to plague Russian efforts to integrate personnel who served in Russian proxy forces in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military bureaucracy.

NEW: The Houthis launched a one-way attack drone into Tel Aviv for the first time. The Houthis have conducted reconnaissance in force against Israeli air defenses in recent months, which may have enabled the attack. Read more in the July 19, 2024 Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/e5tYwjpH Israel announced that there are “increasing indications” that Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, is dead. The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Deif in the southern Gaza Strip on July 13. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks. His comments come as Iran has in recent months expanded its nuclear program and run computer simulations that could help build a nuclear weapon. The IDF conducted airstrikes into southern Lebanon, killing two officers from Lebanese Hezbollah’s Radwan unit. The Radwan unit is Hezbollah’s elite commando force and is designed to conduct ground attacks into Israel.

ISW is looking for two full-time, entry-level ArcGIS Geospatial Researchers (one with a maritime focus) to support our conflict mapping program and geospatial analysis. Skills in raster and satellite imagery analysis and a working knowledge of ESRI ArcGIS are required. For more info + to apply: https://lnkd.in/eySP5ujC

My latest op-ed for The Wall Street Journal. Any serious strategy to defeat Russia’s war in Ukraine must remove all advantages freely granted to Moscow. President Biden must allow Ukraine to target legitimate military targets in Russia without restrictions. https://lnkd.in/eeJCraXC

We're #hiring a new ArcGIS Geospatial Researcher in Washington, District of Columbia. Apply today or share this post with your network.

NEW | Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, July 18, 2024: Members of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle told Western Media that Khamenei sought to promote the candidacy of Masoud Pezeshkian due to Pezeshkian’s ability to “foster unity.” The Western media report is inconsistent with the regime’s previous stances vis-a-vis Pezeshkian throughout the election campaign period. Khamenei’s statements and IRGC meetings suggest that Pezeshkian’s rise to the presidency was unplanned. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eqbTFxiY Key Takeaways: Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Air Force killed two Hamas commanders and one PIJ commander in the Gaza Strip on July 18. Lebanon: The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes that killed one Hamas leader and one Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon on July 18.

NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2024: Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on July 18 that sources in Ukrainian law enforcement stated that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted a naval and aerial drone strike during a Russian military exercise at a Russian coast guard base near occupied Lake Donuzlav, Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18 and damaged and disabled a headquarters with a control point, a warehouse with ammunition and equipment, an electric substation, technical facilities, and Russian firing positions. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eWqKqWmv Key Takeaways: European countries continue to display their commitment to Ukraine and unity in the face of Russian aggression. Rosgvardia made an unprecedented proposal on July 17 to grant Russian Central Bank leadership the right to carry automatic weapons and handguns. Kremlin officials continue to expand the geographic scope of Russia's proposed alternative "Eurasian security architecture." The US continues efforts to build out a partnership with Armenia, sparking critical reactions from Kremlin officials. Russian forces recently marginally advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and near Kharkiv City, Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Hulyaipole. Russian officials continue efforts to expand the Russian Armed Forces' training capacity and address force generation issues.