Fred Rozell

In-the-Know with Thomas Brinsko: The issue with recent energy policies. In this vlog, Thomas discusses the Biden administration's energy policies, highlighting their potential impacts on energy security, prices, and the power generation industry's future. http://ow.ly/uas5105vqRO

Storage Surplus Seen Shrinking Further as Natural Gas Futures Climb Ahead of EIA Print https://ift.tt/hT3CPA6 Natural gas futures advanced early Thursday as traders prepared to turn to the latest government inventory data to further assess tightening balances heading into the summer cooling season. The June Nymex contract was up 2.2 cents to $2.864/MMBtu as of 8:35 a.m. ET. July was up 2.2 cents to $3.074. Pre-report surveys showed the market anticipating another surplus-shrinking weekly injection from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 10:30 a.m. ET storage release. A Reuters poll of 12 analysts resulted in a median 85 Bcf injection, with responses ranging from 82 Bcf to 91 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey produced a range from 78 Bcf to 91 Bcf, with a median injection estimate of 85 Bcf. NGI modeled an 83 Bcf injection for the latest EIA report, which covers net changes to Lower 48 storage during the week ending May 17. The five-year average for the period is a 92 Bcf injection, while the year-earlier build was 97 Bcf. “It was warmer versus normal over the West and far northern U.S., while near to cooler than normal most elsewhere,” NatGasWeather said of temperatures during the EIA report period. “We expect a bullish build of 81-82 Bcf, aided by decently lighter week/week wind energy generation.” Gelber & Associates analysts called for a 77 Bcf injection for the week ending May 17, noting that lower-than-expected injection figure “would likely extend the market’s current rally.” The natural gas market continues to carry a sizable storage overhang, though the Lower 48 surplus to the five-year average has trended lower in recent weeks. Total Lower 48 working gas in underground storage stood at 2,633 Bcf as of May 10, which is 620 Bcf above the five-year average and 421 Bcf above year-earlier stockpiles.  “Though the surplus to the five-year average remains large, sentiment around summer’s ability to meaningfully impact the storage picture has become more bullish, especially for the South Central,” Gelber analysts said. Meanwhile, overnight forecast trends were mixed, with models continuing to advertise stronger weather-driven demand the next four days, according to NatGasWeather. “Where the weather data remains not quite as hot as needed is for the five- to 12-day forecast period as weather systems impact much of the eastern half of the U.S., including cooling much of Texas into the upper 70s to mid-90s, down from mid-90s to mid-100s,” NatGasWeather said.  Maxar’s Weather Desk similarly predicted near-normal conditions over the eastern Lower 48 during the six- to 10-day time frame in its latest forecast Thursday. The updated 11- to 15-day period trended hotter for the South, the forecaster said. “The period continues to feature a western focus of above normal temperatures, which comes downstream of a trough settling into the northeast Pacific,” Maxar said. “…The forecast is near normal for temperatures from the Midwes...

Natural Gas Futures Erase Monday’s Gains as Wild Swings Continue; Heat Lifts Cash https://ift.tt/KjqS2wa Natural gas futures fell sharply Tuesday in a third volatile session as the supply picture improved from a quicker fix of a Louisiana pipeline outage and upward revisions to Lower 48 gas production. At A Glance: July futures fall 17.0 cents LNG feed gas demand at 13.1 Bcf/d Western markets lead cash gains Coming off a 16.9-cent gain Monday, the July Nymex contract on Tuesday fell 17.0 cents day/day to settle at $2.586/MMBtu.  Meanwhile, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. rose 8.0 cents to $1.775, supported by a heat wave spiking cooling demand in western states. “You got a bit of a mixed bag in terms of bearish and bullish factors, ” StoneX Financial Inc.’s Thomas Saal, senior vice president of energy, told NGI. “The market is kind of meandering here and is waiting for more solid weather summer-wise.”  While there is severe heat in the West and Gulf Coast, and the Southeast is warm, it is still early in the summer for strong air conditioning demand, Saal said. In addition, the market is still shaking off the excess gas supply from the mild winter. Many producers reduced output to create some scarcity amid the oversupply, but some may be coming back as prices recover, he said.  Lower 48 natural gas in working storage levels stood at 2,795 Bcf in the week ended May 31, well above the five-year average of 2,209. Underscoring the threat of returning supply, Wood Mackenzie’s Lower 48 production estimates for Monday were revised 705 MMcf/d higher. Off that level, Tuesday’s output was estimated to be down by 2.4 Bcf/d to 97.0 Bcf/d. “Day/day declines are concentrated in Texas, the Northeast and Rockies, but revisions are expected in later cycles,” firm analyst Laura Munder said. U.S. liquefied natural gas feed gas volumes ticked higher to about 13.1 Bcf/d Tuesday, according to NGI’s North American LNG Export Flow Tracker.  Weather models added some demand since Monday with both hotter and cooler trends, NatGasWeather said.  “But most important, the timing of swings in national demand remains on track and with decently strong demand the next three days as temperatures remain near to warmer than normal over most of the U.S.,” the forecaster said. “This includes impressive heat continuing to impact Texas with highs of 90s and 100s.” The hot weather aside, selling pressure on futures Tuesday was “aided by pipeline issues being resolved,” NatGasWeather said. TC Energy Corp.’s ANR Pipeline Co. said it would cut short work to restore southbound capacity through its Eunice compressor station (CS) in Acadia Parish, LA. The work was originally set to go through June 11 after an equipment failure cut available capacity to 350 MMcf/d. ANR said the constraint would end Tuesday, however, additional work on the Grand Chenier CS would run until Thursday, but with a much smaller capacity cut of 228 MMcf/d. ‘Burst of Supply’ EQT Corp., the largest ...

🔥🔋 THE One Minute Energy Update - 7/8/24 🔋🔥 📈 #NYMEXUpButStillCheap 📉 #PG&EBasisDown 📉 #SoCalBasisDown 🌡️ #WeatherBullish 🌍 #CarbonOffsets Market Highlights: 🔹 NYMEX natgas remains below $2.40 - the cheapest pricing in over a month. 🔹 U.S. natural gas storage surplus drops for the 7th consecutive week. 🔹 Power sector natgas consumption spikes to 45.3BCf/day due to summer heat. 🔹 Hedge funds hold a net long position in Henry Hub futures, signaling an end to the bearish market. Do you read that? END OF A BEARISH MARKET. Current Prices: Open: $2.27 High: $2.39 Low: $2.26 Current: $2.35 📉 NYMEX prices are down ~$0.10 from last week. NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates: 2024: $2.68 2025: $3.40 2026: $3.76 Averages: 2024 (YTD): $2.19 2023: $2.73 2022: $6.64 2021: $3.84 Technical Levels: Resistance: Starting @ $2.40/$2.48 Pivot: @ $2.35 Support: Starting @ $2.27/$2.23 Basis Update: 📉 PG&E CG and SoCal CG Basis prices are above the year low from 2 weeks ago. 💡 We're officially in the Dog (Star) Days of summer, so expect bullish movement. Be ready to buy when prices fall. LNG & NG Exports/Imports: LNG Exports: 12.2Bcf/D Mexico Exports: 6.6Bcf Canadian Imports: 6.1Bcf Supply & Demand: Today's Est. Supply: 107.8Bcf 7-Day Avg. Supply: 107.9Bcf Today's Est. Production: 101.7Bcf Today's Est. Demand: 103.1Bcf 7-Day Avg. Demand: 101.57Bcf (up 2Bcf) Rig Count: Total: 585 (up by 4) Oil: 479 NatGas: 101 (up by 4) Misc.: 5 Storage: Current: 3,134Bcf Above last year: 275Bcf Above 5-year avg.: 496Bcf Projections: 3.95Tcf by Oct '24, 1.65Tcf for Mar '25 Weather: 🌡️ Increasing temps across most of the U.S. 🌧️ Heavy rainfall from NM to Great Lakes, Gulf, and Mid-Atlantic. 🌪️ Hurricane Beryl expected to hit Chicago by Thursday night. Forecast: 5-10 days: Bullish 10-15 days: Bullish 3 months: Turning bearish Summer (Jul-Sep): Turning bearish Winter (Dec '24-Feb '25): Bearish Crude: 📉 Current Price: $82.49 2024: $81.43 2025: $76.49 2026: $72.01 CA Retail Power: CAISO: > $48 per MWH Carbon Offsets: 🌍 California and other states will mandate companies to buy carbon offsets starting as early as 2025. Are you ready? Bottom Line: Stay alert and take advantage of both NYMEX and Basis markets when prices fall. Small savings can lead to big gains when prices rally!

I believe a key strategy of a successful energy transition is accelerating the generation of free positive cashflow at U. S. refineries. It has been my experience that refinery and petrochemical workers have the experience and insights to continuously improve safe, sustainable operable capacity of existing refinery and petrochemical plant assets. Does the Environmental Protection Energy (EPA) understand the contribution this would make for the transition to reliable, affordable and lower carbon energy future?

Natural Gas Futures Tumble on EIA Storage Miss, While Production Points Higher; Cash Tanks https://ift.tt/VJsYmRI July Nymex natural gas futures were lower Thursday as the latest storage data surprised with a larger-than-anticipated injection and as producers appear to be hiking output in preparation for the summer. At A Glance: July futures down 9.4 cents EIA prints 84 Bcf build Some shut-in production returning After sharper losses in a knee-jerk response to the storage print, the fresh prompt-month contract settled at $2.572/MMBtu, down 9.4 cents on its first day in the lead position. It added to the prior day’s 15.9-cent routing. With Thursday’s decline, “the July contract has now retraced over 50% of its move up from the year’s low in February,” analysts with Gelber & Associates said. NGI’s spot gas National Avg. also tumbled, sinking 12.0 cents to $1.445, coinciding with calls for mild high temperatures for a large swath of the Lower 48 in the coming days. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an 84 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended May 24. The build was below the five-year average hike of 104 Bcf and the 106 Bcf increase recorded for the year-earlier period.  The print marked the fifth straight lighter-than-average weekly injection and brought inventories to 2,795 Bcf. That is 380 Bcf higher than the same week last year and 586 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,209 Bcf. It missed most expectations coming into the day. A Reuters survey of 12 analysts produced a 78 Bcf median injection, and a Bloomberg survey generated a 77 Bcf median. NGI modeled a spot-on 84 Bcf injection.  Though storage was a bullish surprise against most expectations, NatGasWeather meteorologist Rhett Milne said other factors, including increased natural gas production, contributed to the retreat.  However, he noted, “There’s still enough heat over the southern United States, as well as a tight enough supply/demand balance, that surpluses will continue gradually decreasing in June from about 600 Bcf toward 500 Bcf.” Early estimates from Reuters for the week ending May 31 ranged from additions of 73 Bcf to 95 Bcf, with an average increase of 86 Bcf. That compares with an increase of 105 Bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average increase of 103 Bcf. Power Burn Rises NatGasWeather said the latest weather data suggests light national demand through the weekend before rising next week as most of the country warms to above-normal temperatures, with highs in the 80s over much of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and East.   Wood Mackenzie data showed that power burns averaged 32.6 Bcf/d over the recent seven days and is expected to average 36.3 Bcf/d in the coming week. Wood Mackenzie analyst Eric McGuire said, “Even though power burns are starting to increase as we move into summer, we expect to see larger injections in the coming three weeks.”  He attributed the outlook to the ramp-up of production, “which...

Natural gas is approaching the critical $1.50 level, a support since the early 1990s. It's a decisive moment for Nat Gas. Join us as we dive into the technical analysis of this chart. Stay tuned! #naturalgas #technicalanalysis #markettrends #energyprices

@NGInews - Extreme hot weather slated to spread across the country.sends natural gas NYMEX futures above the key resistance threshold of $3 for the prompt and all future months. Concerned about your energy future? Call PRI today at 847-673-1959 to see what we can help you create. #energy #natgas #naturalgas #NYMEX #prospectresources #layeredhedging

Williams CEO Says Natural Gas Demand Accelerating, but ‘Oversupplied’ Market Needs to be ‘Patient’  https://ift.tt/vpDSERf Williams executives are expecting strong growth for natural gas consumption in the years ahead, but said those levels of demand may not come “quite as quickly as a lot of people think,” and, in one case, that demand was not enough to overcome opposition to a pipeline project. “Natural gas demand is not just growing now, it is accelerating,” CEO Alan Armstrong said during the first quarter earnings call. However, in the near-term, Lower 48 gas markets are “definitely oversupplied” and “it is going to be a period, though, of people having to be patient and waiting on the market,” according to Armstrong. [Inside the Political Firestorm: NGI sits down with Neil Chatterjee, a former FERC chairman and commissioner, to discuss the impacts of President Biden’s LNG pause on authorizing new liquefied natural gas export projects in the U.S. Tune into NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast now.] Steep contango in natural gas forward prices underscored the value of William’s investment in storage facilities, including its acquisition of Hartree Partners LP acquisition, “but that strong contango is also keeping rigs running that might not otherwise be running today,” he said.  Producers have responded by cutting output “and we’re also starting to see the demand side respond to that as well, and I think we’ll see more of that this summer” as “the market always finds a way to balance itself with low enough prices,” according to Armstrong. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. has held below the $1.500/MMBtu level for most of the past two months, weighed down mild shoulder season demand and a glut of West Texas gas supply pushing the region’s prices negative.  NESE Canceled Separately this week, Williams confirmed that it was no longer moving forward with the Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project that would boost gas supplies to New York City from Pennsylvania. Williams in April notified FERC that it would not pursue another extension for the project, which faced regulatory setbacks. “While Williams continues to believe in the fundamentals of the NESE project and its ability to provide a cleaner and more affordable alternative to costly heating oil for consumers, at this time, we have decided not to pursue an extension of the certificate,” a company spokesperson told NGI. Demand Outlook Longer term, it is “pretty clear” demand would be coming from liquefied natural gas terminal capacity additions and rising electricity needs from data centers and the reshoring of industries, Armstrong said. “Starting in mid-2025, I do think that we’re going to start to see a big call on gas that will last for years to come,” he said.  Williams tallied 3.1 Bcf/d of expansions underway on its Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco) system, the country’s largest natural gas pipeline system that runs from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast.  The C...

Natural Gas Futures Resume Rally Mode Amid Weaker Production, Narrower Storage Surplus https://ift.tt/5JKfkqh Natural gas futures flew higher Thursday, gaining ground for the fifth time in six sessions as production continued to slide and storage excesses gradually narrowed. At A Glance: EIA prints 79 Bcf Injection Output below 96 Bcf/d Summer weather nears Following a breather the prior session – a 2.0-cent dip – the June Nymex gas futures contract on Thursday jumped 11.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.301/MMBtu.   NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 14.5 cents to $1.375, dragged lower by ongoing weakness in West Texas. Production slipped to 95.6 Bcf/d, according to Wood Mackenzie estimates on Thursday, down from the prior seven-day average of 97.6 Bcf/d and the 30-day average of 98.5 Bcf/d. Due largely to a producer pullback in the face of hefty storage balances coming out of a mild winter, output was hovering more than 10 Bcf/d from the all-time peak early this year. Some of the decline is because of maintenance events, including in the Permian Basin, Wood Mackenzie noted. So the depth of the producer retrenchment may not prove as severe as this week’s readings indicate. Still, production estimates have steadily declined over the past two months, enduring long enough to convince market participants that the flow of supply is significantly lighter as the summer cooling season – and stronger demand – nears. National Weather Service (NWS) data showed strong southern heat for much of the current trading week before a mid-May cooldown. Longer term, however, NWS forecasts pointed to above-average summer temperatures across most of the Lower 48. With demand poised to climb on the heels of curtailed production, price bulls seized upon the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory results as further evidence of an oversupplied market beginning to come into balance. EIA on Thursday said utilities injected 79 Bcf of natural gas into storage for the week ended May 3. That was near NGI’s 77 Bcf estimate. NGI’s model represented the low end of injection expectations found in major polling, with Bloomberg’s survey showing a high of 94 Bcf and a median of 87 Bcf. The actual print also compared bullishly with a five-year average injection of 81 Bcf. Natural gas output hovered around 97 Bcf/d during the covered period, as London Stock Exchange Group analyst Saheed Olayiwola noted on the online energy platform Enelyst. And it “continues to decline,” he said. The increase for last week lifted inventories to 2,563 Bcf, keeping stocks notably above the year-earlier level of 2,119 Bcf and the five-year average of 1,923 Bcf. However, the surplus to the five-year average decreased by two percentage points from the prior EIA result, to 33%. It narrowed by a similar level the previous week. “Compared to degree days and normal seasonality, this week’s report is 3.7 Bcf/d tight versus the prior five-year average,” said Wood Mac...