Raoul Pal’s Post

#MacroMondays - Is the U.S. Headed for a Recession? ft. Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold 👇 KEY TAKEAWAYS: US Recession Indicators: The discussion highlights three key recession indicators - tax data, electricity output, and credit conditions. Monitoring these can provide insights into economic health. UK Real Wage Growth: Despite political uncertainties, UK consumers might regain confidence due to significant real wage growth, presenting a potential upside for the economy in the second half of the year. French Public Spending Risks: France's new coalition government plans substantial public spending, which could lead to fiscal indiscipline. Investors should keep an eye on France's budget targets and EU scrutiny. Gig Economy Impact: The rise of the gig economy complicates traditional economic indicators. Understanding its impact on employment and tax data is crucial for accurate economic analysis. AI's Economic Role: AI and data processing might drive increased electricity output. This could lead to higher productivity despite potential job losses, suggesting a nuanced impact of AI on the economy. Liquidity Trends: The US Treasury's increased spending in July and August could positively impact liquidity. Investors should consider this when making market decisions. Political Stability: The election outcomes in the UK and France have significant implications for economic policies and market sentiment. Stability in these regions can influence broader market trends. Watch the FULL episode on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/etvAhTuW #recession #macro #macroeconomics #useconomy #financialmarkets