Stefan Mustieles’ Post

NEW: The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners Westminster voting intention poll - first of 2024 *Labour leads by 18 points* Labour: 42% Conservatives: 24% Reform UK: 13% Lib Dems: 10% Green: 5% Other: 6% Tom Lubbock, Co-founder of J.L. Partners said:   "J.L. Partners is extremely excited to be launching our first monthly voting intention tracker in the UK with The Rest is Politics podcast.    For the first time we have provided voting intention figures using our GURU model that accounts for voters who say they currently don’t know how they would vote and also predicts the effects of turnout on an election. The upshot is that Labour lead on 42% with the Conservatives on 24% – an 18 point Labour lead. The key takeaway from this is that the Conservatives’ dire position is only marginally improved (the Labour lead goes down by 3 points) when we take into account some of the remaining uncertainty in the polls.   One key reason behind this huge Labour is that Keir Starmer remains streets ahead of Rishi Sunak when we ask the public who best understands normal people 47% to 13% for Rishi Sunak. Also only 15% of the public think Rishi Sunak is in control of his party with 41% saying the same for Keir Starmer.   On the top three issues for the public – the NHS, growing the economy and the cost of living Labour leads the Conservatives by a distance. The only issues where the Conservatives are currently ahead are Ukraine, legal and illegal migration, Islamist extremism and tackling 'woke'." Tables and method: https://lnkd.in/dnWRV6hV Podcast: https://lnkd.in/espch5aq

We’re a 1/4 way through both the calendar & Australian political year 2024 #auspol #elections2024 #politics So at this short Easter break segue a good point for quick assessment against your Govt & political strategies. And tackle or endorse ‘accepted wisdom’ out of the #canberrabubble RoyceComm 1. Cost of living issues permeate but blame isn’t consistently attributed. Whilst not fully translating into predictive voter response, it remains top of mind, top of agenda across Federal / State jurisdictions. The May Federal Budget will drill even further around the thematic. Interpretation of official inflation (& then real experienced inflation by, well, ‘us’) & the RBA’s direction on interest rates also factors The Dunkley byelection outcome in March can be read many ways but the result, with next-stage tax cuts playing its role, had the contest & outcome hardening up major party (Labor / Liberal / Green) positions. 2/ 4th term Govt’s are rarified air. As Tasmanian election & Queensland State by elections showed last week & NSW not a distant memory, voter antipathy is pretty clear around long-term Govts. Yes the results may vary but it is a pointer to Qld, NT & maybe even ACT election results all to be held later this year & where all 3 are l/term administrations. 3/ the other issues: Youth crime, state of health care & service delivery, public debt (and what Govt does with it), business sustainability (with associated employment) & energy/environment I’d argue are the other bit 5. And I haven’t even touched on border security. Crime & social disorder isn’t a sleeper issue for the likes of Sky after dark anymore. Even in Melbs when you have people, if you can call them that, stealing keep sake items off graves, let alone the metal memory plates off grave sites (they are worth real money when melted), it feeds a narrative in itself. 4/ Rise of 3rd parties. They may wax & wane a bit but a steady Greens vote, where to for Teals & Jacqui Lambie Network & One Nation, let alone Palmer, all polls and elections are showing 1/3 and then some as a voting block. This is increasingly hard-wired. It also sharpens the criticality of the majors to try & build their primary - 1 - vote. It also now really future shape Parliament’s - aka latest example - Tasmania! 5/ Policy rich - there are so, so many major policy issues & in breadth playing out in Canberra at present. Hard to keep count. Their outcomes probably not truly factored into the public’s thinking yet. A safe & reflective & peaceful Easter to you all. https://lnkd.in/eYA2Z2f6 #qldpol #vicpol #costofliving #ausbiz #inflation #youthcrime #health #nt #act #rba #politicalstrategy #budget2024 #tax #interestrates #smallbusiness #tasmania #afl #stadiums #energypolicy #publicpolicy #nves #vehicleemissions #cleanenergy #religiousfreedoms #bordersecurity #vaping #employment #migration #visas #offshoreexploration #highcourt #albanese #dutton

Politics today... "When subtracting negative posts from positive posts between September 11-24, 63% of Chris Hipkins Labour's Facebook posts included positive self-presentation. Meanwhile, just 5.5% of Christopher Luxon National’s posts are positive." Source: https://lnkd.in/gv5wmSfH Imagine if businesses took the same approach - spending 94.5% of our time being negative about our competition, rather than highlighting the value we delivered. Easy answer...we'd fail! The article suggests that “Criticising a government, or pointing out public mismanagement, and providing voters with electoral alternatives are key functions of democratic campaigning and may help voters to make informed voting decisions,” but I am not convinced. It is hindsight based, rather than looking forward by presenting policy and how they will impact NZ and the lives of people living here. So easy to slag off what others have done...much harder and more thought required to help people understand how you will be better... To be clear - I am not pro either of the parties mentioned in this article. For the very reasons talked about I am struggling to make a decision about who I think should lead NZ for the next term. Neither of the main parties are addressing the fundamental issues of poverty, eduction, healthcare, housing and the climate in a way which installs faith that they can deliver. #nzelection2023 #votenz

On this #nationalvotersday let us give a test to the ruling government If at all it is ready to accept the same? How far, how successful can be made out later on I hope my name is their in the #voterslist is the concern of every person who takes part in the democratic process of the country. Practicing your #Righttovote on a regular basis helps in keeping alive your name in the #electorallist. This is one the main reasons for which it becomes necessary for all of us to vote without fail. Let us take the pledge of going out and voting on the date of vote to mark our presence in the democratic list of an area, country and letting authorities know that we still exist and are alive practicising our #democraticright of choosing our candidate plus expecting something from one in return. Everything comes at a price and it becomes important for a candidate chosen by the public to deliver it with job opportunities having a direct bearing on #economicconditions. Economy here means respective economies of each one of us concerned. It is not necessary a strong #nationaleconomy also hinting at good, robust personal economies of people. A strong national economy can come to the rescue of a ruling government which can boast about for example sitting atop an economy placed at fifth position in the world and if need arises helping people through #freefoodgrains under #freefoodgrainsscheme used by it to its advantage should say politically as well as electorally. Genuine government in a democracy is one which works towards providing each and every person jobs making them #selfdependent and rest seeing individual plus development of the country on the whole sitting at peace. A government focussing more on development of the nation could be neglecting personal developments of people in the bargain while the norm should be each and everyone living in the country having jobs and the ruling government asking in return from them to put a stamp on the development of the country taken place under its rule. If such a system develops in the country will surely bring a change in the political results which we are witnessing. A weak party here is losing electorally due to weakness of the ruling government which it is following towards aspects such as #economy and #employment making half of the #electorate stay away from the #democraticprocess altogether. The other half taking part in elections a big share of its votes going to the dominant party keeping the weak party behind just the half of the #votersstrength. An incomplete electorate is affecting the prospects of the weak party which if helped through the other half of the electorate can do wonders in the total, final result. This is something which voters need to realise not stressed on by the ruling-dominant party since it is half the electorate and its votes which is helping it electorally thus politically.

Tomorrow the UK will vote for its next PM - to commemorate this, I have written a blog on the potential impact on the North from each party and what the future might look like for the built environment going forward 🏗 Please have a read and repost.

Delighted to come on board with the incredible team at Ardesey Ltd during this remarkable election campaign. The Campaign result seems certain, as we only expect to be dissecting the scale of the Labour Government majority. So, looking ahead, here are my top 4 questions for the post-election world: 1. Government Spending Review – does the Chancellor play it long or short? There isn’t much time left in the year to complete a Spending Review if there is an entire new set of Ministers, who will need to brief-up and engage in many substantive conversations on the government spending envelope. Just before the election was announced the Institute for Government made a good case to complete a one year spending review first, to allow proper time to complete a multi-year settlement in 2025. Prudent, more conservative civil servants see value in the former, but political pressure on Ministers may incentivise them towards an “ambitious” encapsulation of the year ahead. 2. The UK is hosting in the 4th summit of European Political Community at Blenheim Palace on the 18th July. How is the new Government going to use the opportunity? The Sunak administration dragged its feet on getting this in the diary, but it’ll be a fascinating early sign of how and to what level a new Labour Government would like to reset relations with other European governments. The UK can leverage its position on security and tech issues, and perhaps generate a little warmth for UK-EU relations in the longer term. 3. Holidays on hold - how short is the traditional summer recess going to be? We’re hearing from well placed sources that holiday season will be a lot shorter for those working in Westminster and Whitehall. Labour shadow ministers have not been shy of calling a state of crisis, especially on public services, so quickly jetting off for a long recess would not look great. According to FT report Labour figures said MPs could be asked to work in the week from July 29 to August 2 with an earlier return after the summer holidays was also possible. The i reported Parliament could “sit longer in September” to get more pieces of legislation under way. 4. Selecting the Committee Chairs – will the new government have it all its own way? Here the number of MPs won by each party will matter, shortly after the election the Speak of the Commons will inform each party on the proportion of chairs allocated to each party. Election of chairs normally takes place within two weeks of the result. Selection of the Chairs is by way of secret ballot, which – as has been seen before – often mean government doesn’t get the Chair it wants. If there is a huge Government majority, MPs may be more open to vote – in private – for more independently-minded chairs. Not look until we get some answers! #GE2024 #SpendingReview #Europe #Parliament #Recess

The headline below caused a bit of a kerfuffle on Monday. You don't often see this, but YouGov issued some of its own notes on the original newspaper article. It's worth reading YouGov's article on the results to get an accurate story: https://lnkd.in/euan7uvs. Their assessment of the article includes: "This is somewhat of a red herring." "which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact." "This is not the case" YouGov notes on the Daily Telegraph’s analysis... The Daily Telegraph wrote that “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”. This is somewhat of a red herring. There is a sum using certain notional results whereby the estimated Labour share looks like a mean of a four point rise on their 2019 performance. However, this is not the correct way to look at either implied national changes nor what is happening at the constituency level. If we aggregate up all our constituency level figures and then weight them according to likely voter population, the headline vote intention figures come out at the following: Labour 39.5%, Conservatives 26%, Lib Dems 12.5%, Reform 9%, Greens 7.5%, SNP 3%, Plaid 0.5%, Others 2%. A separate note by the Daily Telegraph suggested that the presence of Reform UK is the difference between Labour securing a majority and not. This is their own calculation using our data, and appears to be based simply on adding the Conservative and Reform UK vote shares together in each constituency, which is not a reliable way of measuring their impact. Were Reform UK not to contest the election, it is extremely unlikely that all, or even a majority, of their voters would transfer to the Conservatives. Some would go to UKIP and splinter parties, some to Labour and other established parties, and some would simply stay at home – YouGov polling in October found only 31% of Reform UK voters would be willing to vote Conservative if Reform UK were not standing in their constituency. Finally, the Daily Telegraph also said that the YouGov MRP model does not account for tactical voting in its estimated shares. This is not the case – our model does provision for tactical voting in its design, including by estimating constituency competition effects as part of the model equation. It does not, however, apply any post-hoc readjustments to vote share estimates based on any assumed model of tactical voting beyond what we already have in the data. #generalelection #pressintegrity

Today the Labour Party have launched their biggest ad campaign yet under Starmer and it promotes the party’s “6 steps for change”. None of these are new policies, but this is a new framing and a significant investment and so it’s leading the day’s news bulletins. Here’s 5 observations on the advert: 1/ Keir Starmer is front and centre of the ad. Labour believes the public thinks that he would make a better Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak and so they want to press home this advantage on leadership. 2/ They’re spending significant amounts of money on offline media: posters and press ads in local newspapers in key constituencies. They want to reach a broad group of voters as they believe there’s a significant number of voters open to changing how they voted in 2019. 3/ There are 5 previously published Labour “missions” but 6 “first steps”. The house building and infrastructure investment mission is not represented, but border security (absent from the missions) is included. Plus economic stability is called out as a key step but was more implied as part of a variety of the missions. This indicates that the party believe that they can take “renty somethings” for granted and can focus their attention on people who are worried about illegal immigration instead. 4/ There are only two specific numbers pointed out in the pledges: the number of additional NHS appointments they will enable and the volume of new teachers they plan to recruit. There’s also no specific investment numbers. The party were bitten by promising £28billion on green investment instead of focusing on outcomes. They’re not making that mistake again. 5/ Starmer’s facial expression is sincere and serious. His image is in black and white. His sleeves are rolled up. This is all to signal that the party recognise that these are serious times and that Starmer is ready to get to work fixing the country.

Less than two weeks in and we've already been treated to the customary bold policy promises, photo-ops, controversies and gaffes. It may be exciting for those working in politics, but how is it all cutting through beyond the Westminster bubble? Our latest paper looks at one of the defining political stories of our generation: trust. During the campaign we will be convening a 32-person “citizens’ conversation”, an ongoing panel of the public to understand how attitudes towards political trust change. We will also use reactive instant messaging with participants, interviews and additional polling to better understand what the public think about the big election stories as they happen. This citizens’ conversation project is called Trustwatch 2024. In our first paper, out today, we share emerging findings and reflections on the current state of public trust in elections. We find that, contrary to politicians’ rhetoric, the public has little trust in the power of elections to deliver the changes they feel the country needs. Our Trustwatch panel feel politicians need to do more to show they are acting in the public interest rather their own. However, they also recognise the thorny tensions politicians must navigate. For instance, the panel would like to see politicians present a positive vision for the future but also level with the public about the challenges they would face in government. To find out more, read this great write up in the i paper, who we’re delighted to be partnering with on this project. Read our research in full here: https://t.co/eLmjTC62tR ttps://https://lnkd.in/efVpmW8T

Thangam Debbonaire: Fighting the Green Surge in Bristol Central 🔴 Chamber UK’s CEO Ben Howlett joined The Labour Party parliamentary candidate for Bristol Central, Thangam Debbonaire – former Shadow Minister for Culture, Media and Sport, to find out what people are saying on the doorsteps in the run up to the general election this Thursday. Bristol Central is a marginal constituency – one to look out for on #election night as it likely could turn from red to green. Debbonaire’s long-standing dedication and significant contributions to the area will be tested against this new wave of political sentiment. Regardless of the outcome, this election will be a critical moment in defining the future political landscape of Bristol Central and possibly beyond. The results on election night will not only shape the immediate future of this vibrant constituency but also offer insights into the evolving priorities of the British electorate. To find out what people are saying on the doorsteps, click 👇 https://lnkd.in/g3wzzYWv To discover all parliamentary candidates standing, please visit: www.whocanivotefor.com #GE2024 #generalelection #bristolcentral #greenparty #labourparty #thangamdebbonaire #whocanivotefor #ukpolitics #ukgovernment #westminster #electorate