Why the world’s Nike trainer obsession turned into a £21bn black hole

The sportswear shop windows on London’s Oxford Street say it all. At eye level, rows of adidas and New Balance trainers. Above and below them Nike models struggle to be seen. Inside is a similar story. Tables piled with candy-coloured assortments of Adidas. Big displays of New Balance. More tables of vibrantly technical shoes from Hoka and On. Nike is relegated to a corner, just a handful of designs on offer. What has become of the once-mighty Nike swoosh? 

That something has been going drastically wrong became obvious last month, when around £21 billion was wiped from Nike’s stock valuation, its worst performance since 2001. The dramatic loss came after the sportswear giant admitted it expected revenue to decline in the coming year, sparking concerns among investors about demand for Nike’s casual shoes. For a brand that has dominated the market for decades – and is named after the ancient Greek goddess of victory – it was a shocking fall to earth.

For some, Nike’s problems stem from its failure to create – or cultivate – an “it” shoe, a model that becomes wildly popular. New Balance have come close with their 327 and 550, but without doubt the shoe of the past year or so has been the Adidas Samba, a simple soccer trainer designed in 1949. 

In 2020 it was reworked by British-Jamaican designer Grace Wales Bonner. “That’s what set off the Samba’s resurrection”, says Claudine Rousseau, the dean of the School of Design and Technology at London College of Fashion. The limited edition Wales Bonner Samba stoked demand and since then Adidas has produced countless versions in different colours and materials. 

Sambas were inescapable in 2023. Kendall Jenner, Harry Styles and Katie Holmes were all spotted in them. When the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was spotted in them three months ago, the pictures dominated social media and divided opinion. 

Adidas is well prepared as the Samba’s popularity inevitably wanes (catalysed, no doubt, by that viral Sunak moment). The company was established in Bavaria in 1949 and by the 1960s dominated the global sports footwear market. During the 1970s it tried to develop – often successfully – the best possible shoes for almost every sport imaginable. This left it with an enormous archive of three-striped trainers that can be repeatedly revived and reinterpreted. 

“There’s always room for the refresh, people aren’t always looking for the original,” says Rousseau. The Gazelle and Handball Spezial in the current range are good examples. Both are simple designs from the Seventies tweaked slightly and offered today in a rainbow of colours. “They’re accessible, they’re not too expensive, and revisiting all those models, it’s like good classic music,” says Rousseau. 

By contrast, Nike emerged on the American west Coast in the early Seventies and initially focussed on the jogging market. It has a rich heritage, but crucially fewer classics that can be reworked. Its most celebrated retro models are from the Eighties and Nineties, when Nike began targeting other sports, notably basketball. 

A few years ago its Air Jordan 1, Dunk and Air Force 1 trainers were all the rage. Jason Coles, author of Golden Kicks: The Shoes That Changed Sport, thinks this lies behind Nike’s current woes. “The obsession with those three seems to have died overnight, which left a massive hole. Nike aren’t like Adidas where they have a huge back catalogue of much-loved classics they can endlessly rotate. They don’t really have an answer. What’s the next one?”

The Wales Bonner Samba highlights another difference between the two old rivals. After a near-death experience in the late Eighties, the German company embraced outdated sports models and created the Originals sub-brand to sell them as style products. Soon after it began working with Yohji Yamamoto, Stella McCartney, and Jeremy Scott on premium fashion collections. Others followed. More recently it has collaborated with Gucci and Prada.

“Nike don’t have anything comparable to adidas Originals, and although they’ve done some fantastically successful collaborations, they just haven’t embraced it to the extent adidas have,” says Coles. In his view, while Adidas has become increasingly adept at pursuing fashion buyers, Nike has continued to view itself solely as a performance brand, focussing less on the fashion business. 

This would be fine if it weren’t for the fact that Nike is also losing out to other performance brands. New Balance, Asics, Hoka, On and others accounted for 35 per cent of the global market in 2023, up from 20 percent between 2013 and 2020. Kyle Stewart, founder of fashion retailer Goodhood, notes that “technical runners from Salomon, Asics, New Balance, and Hoka are popular at the moment”.

He puts this down to a sense of fatigue and confusion with Nike’s marketing. “Every month there was a new runner, innovation or release. People just don’t know what Nike is doing.” The more successful brands sell recurring styles, some change little year after year. Nike once excelled in exactly this performance-fashion crossover market. A decade ago everyone seemed to be wearing Nike’s technically-advanced Flyknit and Free Run shoes. 

Perhaps Nike simply became too popular for its own good. It’s been a long time since it was the irreverent upstart taking on Adidas. Hoka and On – launched in 2009 and 2010 respectively – seem to have taken that role, with Nike now the villain. “Kids see them as being almost anti-Nike brands,” says Coles. “Nike is seen as being big and arrogant, and people want something different, something new and fresh.” 

One possible chink of light for the brand could be the quiet resurgence of the Nike Cortez, a model which made its debut in 1972 as a long-distance running shoe. It became a fashion statement as much as a practical runner, worn by the likes of Farrah Fawcett. 

This year, the Cortez being talked about again as an option for trainers fans who have tired of the Samba’s domination. The headline of a recent Vogue article read “Why I’m digging out my Nike Cortez trainer this summer” and The Bear star Jeremy Allen White was also photographed wearing an all-white version of the style which he previously told GQ are “my favourite shoes”. But the Cortez will face stiff competition if it is to help restore Nike’s fortunes.

Based on technology Nike rejected, On models have cannelloni-like tubular foam soles. The Swiss brand has recently collaborated with Beams and Loewe. Jennifer Lopez and Gisele Bündchen are among its many fans. Hoka are identifiable by chunky soles conceived for downhill running. “They might look like a hovercraft,” says Rousseau, “but they were designed to respond quite pointedly to a specific problem. That’s good design, not style first.” Their popularity among ultramarathon runners “creates a strong foundation of authenticity” that sells well in the current fashion market. Hoka have been spotted on Cameron Diaz, Reese Witherspoon, Gwyneth Paltrow, Adam Sandler, Britney Spears, and Harry Styles, who posted a gym selfie in a bright yellow and orange pair. 

It’s clear the trainer market is more diverse and more competitive than ever before. Yet KishKash, a London-based DJ, cultural curator and sneaker archivist, is optimistic about Nike’s future.

For him, the company’s recent troubles are an inevitable part of the fashion cycle. “I don’t think Nike has anything to worry about,” he says. “I think because Nike is so saturated, because they’re so omni-present, then you’re going to get style leaders who steer away from that. People might be looking toward alternatives, thinking I want to be ahead of the crowd.” 

He doesn’t think there is any science to creating a hit like the Samba. Brands do their best to get their products onto influential feet, but “basically, you get lucky, you see you’re getting lucky and you start going down that path. You’ve just got to be savvy with it. Nike has done it for years. They’ll be back. This isn’t the first time this has happened.” Rousseau agrees: “Sometimes to have a bit of a fall is a great opportunity to get your fight back.” 

“We’re probably going to see something exciting from Nike. They’re not going to lay down and die. They’ll be back. They’re here to stay,” she says.