Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering,[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Roy Amara
Amara circa 1980
Born
Roy Charles Amara

(1925-04-07)7 April 1925
Died31 December 2007(2007-12-31) (aged 82)
NationalityAmerican
EducationMIT, Harvard, Stanford
Alma materStanford
Known forAmara's law
Spouse
Margaret Frances Terestre
(m. 1949)
Children3
Scientific career
FieldsFuturism
InstitutionsSRI International, IFTF

Amara's law

edit

His adage about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[5][6][7]

The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.[8]

Selected bibliography

edit

Books

edit
  • Amara, Roy; Boucher, Wayne I. (1977). National Science Foundation (ed.). The study of the future: an agenda for research. Washington, D.C.: General Post Office. OCLC 3200105.
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future: scenarios & strategies. New York: Pergamon Press. ISBN 9780080275451.
  • Amara, Roy; Morrison, J. Ian; Schmid, Gregory (1988). Looking ahead at American health care. Washington, D.C.: McGraw-Hill, Healthcare Information Center. ISBN 9780070013841.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (2003). Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge (2nd ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470932513.

Reports

edit

References

edit
  1. ^ "Amara, Roy". Library of Congress. Retrieved 18 February 2015. data sheet (Amara, Roy Charles, b. 4/7/25)
  2. ^ Pescovitz, David (3 January 2008). "Roy Amara, forecaster, RIP". BoingBoing. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
  3. ^ Four Geeky Laws That Rule Our World
  4. ^ "Roy Amara (biography)". University of Arizona: Anticipating the future (course), Futures Thinkers. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
  5. ^ Susan Ratcliffe, ed. (2016). "Roy Amara 1925–2007, American futurologist". Oxford Essential Quotations. Vol. 1 (4th ed.). Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001.
  6. ^ "Encyclopedia: Definition of: Amara's law". PC Magazine. Retrieved 18 February 2015.
  7. ^ Doc Searls (2012). The Intention Economy: When Customers Take Charge. Harvard Business Press. p. 257. ISBN 978-1-4221-5852-4.
  8. ^ Context
  9. ^ Roy Amara at DBLP bibliography