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User:John J. Bulten/Straw polls for the Democratic Party 2008 presidential nomination

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Numerous straw polls were held for the Democratic Party's 2008 United States presidential nomination. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead all Democratic candidates in total straw poll victories.

The following sections collect local-event-based public straw polls where American voters selected among Democratic candidates. In event-based polls, like the election itself, public response is generally widely solicited for a particular event or registration process; the sample represents only willing, eligible people who become aware of the process through advertising and choose to enter, and sometimes an event fee is paid. By contrast, in demographic polls (such as the Democratic opinion polls), through a private random selection process, a subset of the target public is chosen as statistically representative, and individual responses are solicited, generally by phone; the sample represents only willing, eligible people from a statistical cross-section of the voter base. Demographic polls are regarded as more statistically accurate pictures of public opinion, while straw polls provide important interactive dialogue among movements, reflecting trends like organization and motivation.[1][2]

Democratic straw poll results

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Because varying presentation methods of the same statistics can subjectively affect perceived results, several reasonable presentation methods are contrasted below. Except for the candidate list and narrative presentation, only the active registered multistate Democratic campaigns as of January 3 2008 (the first primary) are considered.

Candidates

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The following official and potential 2008 candidates have appeared in Democratic straw poll results: Jared Ball, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Barbara Boxer, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Russ Feingold, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Cynthia McKinney, Frank Moore, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, Mark Warner. The category "Other" includes all other straw poll responses (undecided, blank, fictitious, invalid, etc.) and is treated as an additional candidate for ranking purposes.

Recent winners map

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Each state and D.C. has been colored to represent its last straw poll winner.[3] State coloring is not necessarily representative of primary or general election results in the state since many straw polls are smaller, local events, often conducted months before the primary. The numbers of states in which each candidate has won the state's latest straw poll are as follows:

1. Barack Obama (9)

2. Hillary Clinton (4)

3. John Edwards (3)

4. Chris Dodd (1)

5. Joe Biden, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson (0)

Narrative

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The following 33 poll results (including 10 multiparty polls) are sorted by U.S. state. Where data is incomplete, it reflects all data available at source.[4][5][6]

Arizona

Former Vice President Al Gore won the Arizona District 8 Democrats Straw poll with 51% of the vote.
Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
District 8 Democrats
AZ
2007-08-21 (35) Al Gore 18 (51%), John Edwards 6 (17%), Hillary Clinton 5 (14%), Barack Obama 3 (9%), Joe Biden 2 (6%), Dennis Kucinich 1 (3%).

California

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Democratic Straw Poll
San Mateo CA
2007-10-21 (1000?) John Edwards 290+ (29%), Dennis Kucinich 240+ (24%), Barack Obama 171, Hillary Clinton 128, Other 5th, Al Gore 23, Bill Richardson 7th, Joe Biden 8th, Chris Dodd 8th, Mike Gravel 8th.
San Diego Convention
San Diego CA
2007-09-08 (291) Hillary Clinton 74 (25.4%), John Edwards 63 (21.6%), Barack Obama 46 (15.8%), Dennis Kucinich 40 (13.7%), Al Gore 40 (13.7%), Bill Richardson 26 (8.9%), Other 2 (0.7%).

Florida

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
University of South Florida
Pinellas County FL
2008-01-22 (900?) Barack Obama 54%, Hillary Clinton 33%, John Edwards 8%, Other 5%.
FL Democratic Convention
2007-10-28 (703) Hillary Clinton 296 (42.1%), Barack Obama 110 (15.6%), John Edwards 108 (15.4%), Al Gore 82 (11.7%), Dennis Kucinich 45 (6.4%), Bill Richardson 31 (4.4%), Joe Biden 20 (2.8%), Mike Gravel 7 (1.0%), Chris Dodd 2 (0.3%), Other 2 (0.3%).
Florida State Fair
FL
2007-02-19 (2750) Hillary Clinton 1517 (55.16%), Barack Obama 466 (16.95%), John Edwards 335 (12.18%), Al Gore 211 (7.67%), Joe Biden 52 (1.89%), Bill Richardson 44 (1.60%), Dennis Kucinich 38 (1.38%), Wesley Clark 30 (1.09%), Howard Dean 18 (0.65%), Tom Vilsack 15 (0.55%), Chris Dodd 10 (0.36%), Barbara Boxer 7 (0.25%), Other 7 (0.25%).

Idaho

Senator Barack Obama won the Nez Perce County, Idaho, straw poll with 31% of the vote.
Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Nez Perce County
ID
2007-07-16 (59) Barack Obama 18 (31%), Hillary Clinton 16 (27%), Bill Richardson 8 (14%), John Edwards 6 (10%), Other 5 (8%), Joe Biden 3 (5%), Dennis Kucinich 2 (3%), Mike Gravel 1 (2%).

Illinois

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Dupage County Fair
Dupage County IL
2007-08-09 (431) Barack Obama 60%, Hillary Clinton 25%, John Edwards 8%, Other 7%.
Kane County Fair
Kane County IL
2007-08-09 (277) Barack Obama 53%, Hillary Clinton 27%, John Edwards 10%, Other 10%.

Kentucky

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Kentucky State Fair
KY
2007-08-29 (835) Hillary Clinton 349 (41.8%), Barack Obama 195 (23.4%), John Edwards 183 (21.9%), Bill Richardson 31 (3.7%), Chris Dodd 25 (3.0%), Joe Biden 21 (2.5%), Dennis Kucinich 17 (2.0%), Mike Gravel 14 (1.7%).

Maryland

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Democratic Party Poll
Blue Crab MD
2007-03-07 (4382) Barack Obama 1444 (32.95%), Al Gore 883 (20.15%), Hillary Clinton 683 (15.59%), John Edwards 594 (13.56%), Bill Richardson 336 (7.67%), Wesley Clark 180 (4.11%), Joe Biden 98 (2.24%), Dennis Kucinich 89 (2.03%), Other 50 (1.14%), Chris Dodd 25 (0.57%).

Massachusetts

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
National Caucus #136
Needham MA
2007-12-07 (9) Barack Obama 1st, Dennis Kucinich 2nd, John Edwards 3rd, Hillary Clinton 4th.

Minnesota

Senator Hillary Clinton won the Minnesota Caucus straw poll by one vote over Barack Obama.
Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Minnesota Caucus
MN
2007-03-07 (1216) Hillary Clinton 324 (26.6%), Barack Obama 323 (26.6%), Other 207 (17.0%), John Edwards 176 (14.5%), Bill Richardson 115 (9.5%), Al Gore 31 (2.5%), Wesley Clark 17 (1.4%), Joe Biden 13 (1.1%), Chris Dodd 6 (0.5%), Tom Vilsack 4 (0.3%).

Nebraska

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
HHD Farm Bureau[1]
NE
2007-09-14 (165) Barack Obama 35%, Hillary Clinton 31%, Other 18%, John Edwards 16%.
Nebraska Democrats
NE
2007-02-15 (676?) Hillary Clinton 20%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11%, Mark Warner 10%, Russ Feingold 8%, Other 7%, Tom Vilsack 6%, Joe Biden 5%, Evan Bayh 5%, Bill Richardson 5%, John Kerry 4%, Barack Obama 3%, Al Gore 1%.

New Jersey

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
National Caucus #126
Roselle Park NJ
2007-12-07 (200?) John Edwards 70+, Barack Obama 60+, Dennis Kucinich 30+.

New York

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Bellmore-Merrick Democratic Club[2]
Merrick NY
2008-01-30 (256) Barack Obama 143 (55.9%), Hillary Clinton 108 (42.2%), John Edwards 3 (1.2%), Dennis Kucinich 2 (0.8%).

Oregon

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Sunriver Straw Poll
Sunriver OR
2007-10-07 (144?) Barack Obama 49, John Edwards 47, Hillary Clinton 36, Bill Richardson 12.

South Carolina

Senator Chris Dodd won the York County, South Carolina, straw poll with 28% of the vote.
Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
York County Democrats
York County SC
2007-03-05 (100?) Chris Dodd 28%, Barack Obama 24%, Hillary Clinton 18%, John Edwards 11%, Al Gore 8%, Joe Biden 5.5%, Other 5.5%.

Texas

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Gregg County Fair
Gregg County TX
2007-09-18 (142-149) Hillary Clinton 55-58 (39%), Barack Obama 52-55 (37%), John Edwards 14-15 (10%), Dennis Kucinich 6 (4%), Other 6 (4%), Bill Richardson 4 (3%), Al Gore 2 (1%), Joe Biden 1 (1%), Chris Dodd 1 (1%), Mike Gravel 1 (1%).

Vermont

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Democratic Party Poll
VT
2007-08-01 (800?) Barack Obama 36.0%, John Edwards 29.2%, Hillary Clinton 10.2%, Bill Richardson 9.7%, Dennis Kucinich 8.2%, Other 4.2%, Joe Biden 3.7%, Mike Gravel 1%, Chris Dodd 0.3%.

Virginia

Former Senator John Edwards won the Falls Church straw poll in Virginia with 34% of the vote.
Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Falls Church
Falls Church VA
2007-04-23 (103) John Edwards 35 (34%), Barack Obama 34 (33%), Hillary Clinton 20 (19%), Bill Richardson 12 (12%), Joe Biden 2 (2%).

Wisconsin

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Wisconsin Fair
WI
2007-08-05 (1401) Hillary Clinton 521 (37.2%), Barack Obama 359 (25.6%), John Edwards 217 (15.5%), Al Gore 144 (10.3%), Dennis Kucinich 69 (4.9%), Joe Biden 35 (2.5%), Bill Richardson 24 (1.7%), Chris Dodd 17 (1.2%), Mike Gravel 15 (1.1%).

Multiparty

Poll Source Date (Count) Highlights
Middletown Presidential Poll
Middletown CT
2008-01-26 Ron Paul 42%, Hillary Clinton 30%, Barack Obama 20%, Other 4%, John McCain 2%, Mitt Romney 2%.
National Caucus #125
San Marcos CA
2007-12-07 (18) John McCain 5 (28%), Barack Obama 3 (17%), Other 3 (17%), Hillary Clinton 2 (11%), John Edwards 1 (6%), Mike Huckabee 1 (6%), Ralph Nader 1 (6%), Ron Paul 1 (6%), Mitt Romney 1 (6%).
National Caucus #108
Chicago IL
2007-12-07 (6) Cynthia McKinney 3 (50%), Jared Ball 1 (17%), Frank Moore 1 (17%), Ron Paul 1 (17%).
National Caucus #120
Pineville MO
2007-12-07 (18) Ron Paul 15 (83%), Other 2 (11%), Tom Tancredo 1 (6%).
National Caucus #135
Richmond MO
2007-12-07 (21) Fred Thompson 6 (29%), Mike Huckabee 3 (14%), Hillary Clinton 2 (10%), Rudy Giuliani 2 (10%), Barack Obama 2 (10%), Bill Richardson 2 (10%), John Edwards 1 (5%), Al Gore 1 (5%), John McCain 1 (5%), Mitt Romney 1 (5%).
Pioneer Park Straw Poll
St Petersburg FL
2007-11-28 (322) Ron Paul 240 (74.5%), Other 56 (17.4%), Dennis Kucinich 26 (8.1%).
FRC Values Voters Poll
Washington DC
2007-10-20 (5775) Mitt Romney 1595 (27.62%), Mike Huckabee 1565 (27.10%), Ron Paul 865 (14.98%), Fred Thompson 564 (9.77%), Other 396 (6.86%), Sam Brownback 297 (5.14%), Duncan Hunter 140 (2.42%), Tom Tancredo 133 (2.30%), Rudy Giuliani 107 (1.85%), John McCain 81 (1.40%), Barack Obama 9 (0.16%), Joe Biden 5 (0.09%), Hillary Clinton 5 (0.09%), John Edwards 4 (0.07%), Dennis Kucinich 4 (0.07%), Christopher Dodd 2 (0.03%), Bill Richardson 2 (0.03%), Mike Gravel 1 (0.02%).
Blue Hill Fair
Blue Hill ME
2007-09-06 (595) Hillary Clinton 156 (26.2%), Barack Obama 120 (20.2%), Other 52 (8.7%), John Edwards 47 (7.9%), Mitt Romney 46 (7.7%), Rudy Giuliani 43 (7.2%), Fred Thompson 40 (6.7%), Dennis Kucinich 28 (4.7%), Bill Richardson 18 (3.0%), John McCain 12 (2.0%), Ron Paul 8 (1.3%), Mike Huckabee 6 (1.0%), Joe Biden 5 (0.8%), Chris Dodd 5 (0.8%), Mike Gravel 4 (0.7%), Sam Brownback 3 (0.5%), Duncan Hunter 1 (0.2%), Tom Tancredo 1 (0.2%).
CNHT Family Reunion Picnic
NH
2007-07-07 (294) Ron Paul 182 (61.9%), Rudy Giuliani 22 (7.5%), Daniel Gilbert 20 (6.8%), Mitt Romney 13 (4.4%), Mike Huckabee 10 (3.4%), Tommy Thompson 9 (3.1%), Sam Brownback 8 (2.7%), Duncan Hunter 6 (2.0%), Newt Gingrich 5 (1.7%), John Cox 4 (1.4%), Fred Thompson 4 (1.4%), Tom Tancredo 3 (1.0%), Robert Haines 2 (0.7%), George Phillies 2 (0.7%), Dennis Kucinich 1 (0.3%), John McCain 1 (0.3%), Barack Obama 1 (0.3%), Other 1 (0.3%).
National Taxpayers Conference
DC
2007-06-16 (144) Fred Thompson 37 (26%), Ron Paul 24 (17%), Rudy Giuliani 18 (13%), Mitt Romney 13 (9%), John McCain 8 (6%), Mike Huckabee 7 (5%), Jim Gilmore 6 (4%), Newt Gingrich 5 (3%), Other 4 (3%), Sam Brownback 3 (2%), Duncan Hunter 3 (2%), Tom Tancredo 3 (2%), Dick Armey 2 (1%), Hillary Clinton 2 (1%), Barack Obama 2 (1%), Tommy Thompson 2 (1%), Jeb Bush 1 (1%), Tom Coburn 1 (1%), Steve Forbes 1 (1%), Mike Gravel 1 (1%), Bill Richardson 1 (1%), Joe Biden 0 (0%), Chris Dodd 0 (0%), John Edwards 0 (0%), Dennis Kucinich 0 (0%).

Raw data

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Data suitable for spreadsheet import (letters represent hexadecimal-plus characters).

Head-to-head

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Records of wins, losses, and ties grouped by the Condorcet method.[7][8]

1. Obama beats Biden 16-1, Clinton 15-11-2, Dodd 12-1, Edwards 22-6, Gravel 10-0, Kucinich 16-1-1, Richardson 15-1-1 (7 wins)

2. Clinton beats Biden 16-0-1, Dodd 12-1, Edwards 21-6, Gravel 10-0, Kucinich 14-2, Richardson 17-0-1 (6 wins)

3. Edwards beats Biden 15-1-1, Dodd 11-1-1, Gravel 9-1, Kucinich 14-1-2, Richardson 15-3 (5 wins)

4. Kucinich beats Dodd 9-1-1, Gravel 9-1, Richardson 7-6, ties Biden 6-6-1 (3.5 wins)

5. Richardson beats Biden 11-3-1, Dodd 11-0-1, Gravel 9-0-1 (3 wins)

6. Biden beats Dodd 7-2-4, Gravel 7-1-2, ties Kucinich 6-6-1 (2.5 wins)

7. Dodd beats Gravel 4-3-2 (1 win)

8. Gravel beats none (0 wins)

Total wins

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Total number of first-place finishes.

1. Obama (10)

2. Clinton (9)

3. Edwards (3)

4. Dodd (1)

5. Biden, Gravel, Kucinich, Richardson (0)

Win-place

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Total number of top 2 finishes.[9]

1. Obama 10-11 (21)

2. Clinton 9-7 (16)

3. Edwards 3-5 (8)

4. Kucinich 0-2 (2)

5. Dodd 1-0 (1)

6. Biden 0-0, Gravel 0-0, Richardson 0-0 (0)

Win-place-show

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Total number of top 3 finishes.[10]

1. Obama 10-11-4 (25)

2. Clinton 9-7-7 (23)

3. Edwards 3-5-10 (18)

4. Kucinich 0-2-2 (4)

5. Richardson 0-0-2 (2)

6. Dodd 1-0-0 (1)

7. Biden 0-0-0, Gravel 0-0-0 (0)

Olympic ratings

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Top 3 finishes with 3 points for win, 2 for place, 1 for show.[10]

1. Obama 10-11-4 (54)

2. Clinton 9-7-7 (48)

3. Edwards 3-5-10 (29)

4. Kucinich 0-2-2 (6)

5. Dodd 1-0-0 (3)

6. Richardson 0-0-2 (2)

7. Biden 0-0-0, Gravel 0-0-0 (0)

NASCAR ratings

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100 for win, 98 for place, 96 for show, etc., 0 if absent. This rating gives a high weight to total poll presences.[11]

Among 9 polls with no absences: Clinton 844, Obama 842, Edwards 808, Kucinich 774, Richardson 766, Biden 740, Dodd 722, Gravel 720.

Among 12 polls with up to 1 absent: Obama 1140, Clinton 1138, Edwards 1092, Richardson 1044, Kucinich 1036, Biden 1010, Dodd 884, Gravel 806.

Among 13 polls with up to 2 absent: Clinton 1238 (tie), Obama 1238 (tie), Edwards 1186, Richardson 1136, Biden 1096, Kucinich 1036, Dodd 968, Gravel 806.

Total votes

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Votes (total 11807) in all cases where vote counts are reported.[10]

1. Clinton 4299 (36.41%)

2. Obama 3610 (30.58%)

3. Edwards 2200 (18.63%)

4. Richardson 666 (5.64%)

5. Kucinich 638 (5.40%)

6. Biden 257 (2.18%)

7. Dodd 93 (0.79%)

8. Gravel 44 (0.37%)

Recent votes

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Votes (total 6076) taken after the Blue Crab Maryland Straw Poll of 2007-03-07, in all cases where vote counts are reported. This compares recent with overall performance, and avoids giving undue weight to the results of the single largest poll.[12]

1. Clinton 2099 (34.55%)

2. Obama 1700 (27.98%)

3. Edwards 1271 (20.92%)

4. Kucinich 511 (8.41%)

5. Richardson 286 (4.71%)

6. Biden 107 (1.76%)

7. Dodd 58 (0.95%)

8. Gravel 44 (0.72%)


References

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  1. ^ "Vote on the Michigan Republican debate". MSNBC. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
  2. ^ Harwood, John (2007-10-12). "My Open Letter To Ron Paul Supporters". CNBC. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
  3. ^ "Ron Paul Straw Poll Results".
  4. ^ "Straw Poll Archive - Republican Democratic Straw Polls - 2008 Election".
  5. ^ "Election 2008 - Straw Polls".
  6. ^ "Straw Polls". Race42008.com.
  7. ^ "Ron Paul Now Beats all Candidates Head-to-Head in Straw Polls". Free Market News Network.
  8. ^ "Ron Paul Straw Polls".
  9. ^ "Straw Polls".
  10. ^ a b c "2008 Presidential GOP straw poll results".
  11. ^ "Scoring 2007 Republican Straw Poll Results". Isilion.
  12. ^ Brunner, Chris. "Cumulative Straw Poll Votes Since Iowa".



Category:Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries Category:United States presidential primaries