LONDON — Calling an early election while struggling in the polls was a gamble for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. For some at the top of his ruling Conservative Party, it was also allegedly an opportunity to place a bet of their own.
An investigation into bets placed on the timing of the snap vote has Sunak’s beleaguered party embroiled in a growing scandal less than two weeks before the country heads to the polls.
At its heart, the probe revolves around allegations that at least three people linked to Sunak’s inner circle used insider knowledge to bet that he would call an election for July 4 — earlier than the November date many expected, and a surprise move that drew criticism from political analysts and some in his party.
Days of mounting coverage culminated Thursday in Sunak saying he was “incredibly angry” about the accusations and that anyone involved should be expelled from his party.
The scandal is just the latest blow to his election hopes, with the Conservatives widely expected to suffer a heavy defeat at the hands of a public angered by years of scandals and struggling public services. Many polls show the opposition Labour Party leading by as many as 20 points, with one major poll released this week in The Telegraph newspaper suggesting the landslide could be so dramatic that Sunak himself was at risk of becoming the first ever sitting prime minister to lose his seat.
“Given that one of the clouds that hangs over the Conservative Party are doubts about the ethics about what it’s leaders have been doing over the course of the last five years, i.e. Boris Johnson, and doubts about whether or not ethics and propriety were always kept, this is a bit too similar a story,” said Prof. Sir John Curtice, a polling expert at the University of Strathclyde.
“It’s a reminder of wounds that have never really healed so far as the public’s view of the Conservative Party is concerned,” said Curtice, who is also a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and leads the trusted team behind the country’s election night exit poll.
The storm began last week when Craig Williams, a lawmaker and one of Sunak’s closest aides, confirmed media reports by posting a statement on X acknowledging he had “put a flutter on the general election some weeks ago,” which had “resulted in some routine inquiries.” He later apologized for what he said was a “huge error of judgment.” The Guardian newspaper reported it was a 100 pound ($128) bet.
Earlier this week, London’s Metropolitan Police confirmed that it had arrested an officer from its Royalty and Specialist Protection Command after being contacted by the gambling authority about its investigation. British media reported that the officer was one of Sunak’s police bodyguards.
Then on Thursday, a second Conservative candidate, Laura Saunders, issued a statement via her lawyer saying that she would be co-operating with the Gambling Commission after reports by outlets including the BBC and PA news agency that she was facing a commission investigation into alleged betting offences.
“It is inappropriate to conduct any investigation of this kind via the media, and doing so risks jeopardizing the work of the Gambling Commission and the integrity of its investigation,” the statement said, according to the Associated Press news agency. It added that “the publication of the BBC’s story is premature and is a clear infringement of Ms. Saunders’ privacy rights. She is considering legal action against the BBC and any other publishers who infringe her privacy rights.”
British media reported that Saunders is married to Tony Lee, the Conservatives’ director of campaigning, who the party said Thursday was taking “a leave of absence.”
In a statement, the Conservative Party said that “we have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals,” and “as the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
The story threatens to further derail a Conservative campaign that has been beset by pitfalls and public ire since its launch.
Sunak made his election announcement outside No.10 Downing Street during a heavy rainstorm and was later heavily criticized for heading home early from the 80th anniversary D-Day commemorations in France. He apologized for what he said was a “mistake.”
Labour leader Keir Starmer called on Sunak to suspend Saunders. “If it was one of my candidates, they’d be gone and their feet would not have touched the floor,” he said.
Betting is popular in Britain, where the industry was worth more than $19 billion in the year to March 2023, according to the Gambling Commission. While wagering on anything from soccer matches to how long a Prime Minister will remain in office is far from unusual, profiting from inside information can be a criminal offense.
The allegations appear unlikely to boost Sunak’s chances of an election comeback, but there may be some hope that things won’t be about to get worse.
“We’re already at a record low level of support in the polls [for the Conservatives],” said Curtice, the polling analyst,“so we must be getting pretty close to ground level.”