The Conservative Party has suffered the greatest defeat in its history. Since the Victorian age, it has been in power more often than not, and seldom far from it. It has provided the UK with many of its greatest leaders. What has been the world’s most successful political party has been reduced to less than a quarter of the national vote and fewer than a fifth of the country’s MPs.
That diminished band now has a huge task and an important duty: to make possible the party’s recovery. We should wish the new government success, but the country will need both an effective opposition and, one day, an alternative administration.
There will be many strongly held views about how to provide that and who should lead the effort to do so. But as the only person alive who has led the Conservatives immediately after leaving power, and who did some things right but more than a few wrong, I have some respectful advice for those who might volunteer for that daunting challenge today.
• Who is Victoria Starmer? Meet Keir Starmer’s wife and confidant
To have any chance of recovery, here are five things to avoid:
Advertisement
Do not kid yourselves that it was all the fault of a particular individual, or one or two events. Not Rishi Sunak, not Boris Johnson, not even Liz Truss. Such a massive rejection by the country demonstrates a cumulative and collective failure, adding up over time until the patience of millions of supporters snapped. Blaming an individual leads to the illusion that if only one or two matters had gone differently, all would have been well.
Do not rush the choice of a new leader. I had to take over in 1997 after little time for reflection on my own part or that of the party. This is a big decision, and a mistake could be fatal. Leadership candidates need time to develop their ideas and the party deserves the chance to evaluate them. Choose a leader only after the party conference in October, even with an interim leadership for a time if necessary.
Do not imagine that recovery is inevitable, even when it looks like it has begun. The Labour government will run into many problems. It may become unpopular. But this can lead to a false dawn, with unjustified optimism that voters will flock back. In reality, when people emphatically reject a party, they remember why they did it for more than the life of one parliament. It is easy to be fooled into thinking you don’t have to change too much.
Do not adopt detailed and fixed policy positions, even when running for the leadership. It is disastrous to paint yourself into a corner before you’ve even looked around the room. The world is going to change dramatically in the next four or five years, in healthcare, working life, technology and international security. Don’t busily sign up to positions that will become out of date and leave you stranded in the past.
Do not entertain the idea that the answer is to turn to populist and simplistic solutions. Conservatism has to be about governing, not living by slogans. Voters did not abandon the Tories because they never had popular ideas. They did so because of a loss of trust and of faith in essential competence to deliver on those ideas and maintain decent standards of conduct.
Advertisement
And here are five more positive guides to the future:
Do offer constructive opposition, without denouncing every act of the Labour cabinet. Accept that they will have some good ideas, and need to confront crises in which they deserve support. There will be plenty to criticise in time. This is going to be a long journey. Strident opposition from the beginning is unjustified and no one will listen to it anyway. Sometimes it’s a good idea to shut up.
Do think continually about attracting the support of younger voters, particularly the millennials, who are now aged 25 to 40. If the Conservative Party cannot attract people of that age, building careers, starting families and seeking homes, it’s not going to win. I suspect that if only people under 60 had voted, virtually every seat would have been lost. The future cannot be based on solidifying the loyalty of older generations alone.
Do focus on values, from which future policies are derived. It is a common mistake — I made it — to think that voters are attracted back by presenting them with policies they will like. But they are more likely to make up their mind about the values a party exhibits over time. If you want the public to read a future manifesto, you must establish strong values of service, integrity, reason and responsibility, employed in the pursuit of fairness, opportunity and security.
Do overhaul the machinery and capabilities of the party. Ministers need briefings but opposition leaders need thinking. A renaissance of fresh and fundamental research and ideas is needed, inside the party and the wider centre-right. Let bright minds flourish and people who can be national as well as local leaders become the prominent candidates in future elections.
Advertisement
Do, above all, aim for a broad coalition of conservatism. Much reflection is needed, including on why so many voted for Reform UK, but the British Conservative Party cannot go the way of American Republicans or the French right. It should be able to combine a strong immigration policy and a belief in Britain with being pro-business, internationalist, environmentalist and socially liberal. It should not be merging with any extremes, but making them unnecessary by being a unifying political force.
I don’t envy the remaining Tory MPs. It was a hard job in 1997 and this time it will be even tougher. There’s a moment when you understand you face the challenge of your lifetime, but that’s a sign you’ve only just begun to grasp it. For the Conservative Party, the next big move can start a recovery or bring extinction. If it understands these ten points, there will be a chance of moving in the right direction.
