In financial crises, events can move from impossible to inevitable without ever passing through improbable. This is something I have been repeating since the near-collapse of every leading bank in the world that started with the bankruptcy of Lehman, whose third anniversary is tomorrow. The eye of the hurricane has now moved from America to Europe, but its course is as unpredictable as ever.
Today three outcomes face Europe. One seems inevitable: continuing chaos. One appears improbable, although it must be seriously considered: a break-up of the euro caused by government defaults and bank failures in Greece. And one fantastical scenario is still generally deemed impossible: German withdrawal from the eurozone.
In the coming months or even weeks, however, some probabilities may be abruptly revised.