Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is potential for a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival on 02-03 July, but with low confidence in timing. Aurora sightings could become possible across northern UK and similar latitudes in response to the enhanced geomagnetic activity, however short hours of darkness at this time of year will limit viewing opportunities.
Southern Hemisphere
There is the potential for a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival on 02-03 July, but with low confidence in timing. Aurora sightings could become possible across the south of New Zealand and Tasmania in response to the enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals Days 2-3 (02-03 Jul).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity is Low, with only Common-class flares observed in the past 24 hours.
There are currently fifteen regions on the disc, most of which are small and simple. There are currently fifteen regions on the disc, most of which are small and simple. The largest region remains in the southwest quadrant, followed by another in the southeast quadrant, and also one approaching centre disc. The region in the southeast has seen continued growth of its intermediate spots. A region which has recently rotated onto the eastern limb, is starting to show some intermediate spots and may continue to alter as it becomes more clearly visible. There appears to be magnetic interaction between many of these regions, especially those close together in the south of the disc.
A large filament (arc of plasma held above the Sun's surface by magnetic fields) in the southwest was observed lifting off around 29/1530 UTC, with a subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed in satellite imagery. Analysis suggests this could give a glancing blow at Earth on Days 2 or 3 (02-03 Jul).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are still showing weak CME effects after the arrival on 28 Jun. Wind speeds have shown a slight rising trend, from slightly elevated to elevated levels, ranging between 410-585 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially moderate, but has eased to become weak. The north-south component has varied throughout the period, occasionally moderately. Geomagnetic activity has been Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has remained at background levels with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Effects from the CME that arrived at Earth on 28/0910 UTC have continued to wane. A large CME was observed in the southwest, lifting off around 29/1530 UTC, with a glancing blow likely either on Day 2 or Day 3 (02-03 Jul). There is significant uncertainty in the timing of this feature, however. There are no significant coronal holes on the disc to give any fast wind influence.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with a chance of Active to G1/Minor storm intervals (Kp4-5) on Days 2-3 under CME influence, however confidence is fairly low. Returning to mostly Quiet to Unsettled by Day 4.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels, but with a very slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Storm threshold should any notable flares occur from the numerous sunspots that currently occupy the visible disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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