Friendship founded on mutual interests

Friends also have the ability to speak to each other openly and sincerely. This is epitomised in the comment made to President Vladimir Putin by PM Modi in 2022 that this is not an era of war but of dialogue and diplomacy. Engagement and discussion are needed most when tensions are high and even bigger conflagrations seem imminent. India has been a leading advocate of this approach towards global conflicts. If talks between the two leaders can pave the way to peace and de-escalation, they would serve a cause that goes far beyond the bilateral. The visit does not signify India’s support to Russia’s actions just as India’s interactions with the West do not constitute a stand against Russia.

Questions have been raised about India’s commitment to the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, international law and the rules-based order. India’s response to these questions is to reaffirm these norms but to equally assert that dialogue and diplomacy are even more crucial to preserve these norms. It is a well-accepted fact that international institutions have failed to anticipate, preempt or resolve any of the major ongoing conflicts. In such circumstances, State behaviour of temperance and responsibility emerges as the only way to prevent Armageddon.

From a bilateral perspective, the visit marks the restoration of the practice of India-Russia Annual Summits that was interrupted after the Ukraine conflict and other internal developments in both countries. Historically, this is one relationship that has been driven top-down. Both sides agree that the foundation on which the relationship rests provides the platform for its reconfiguration and reinvention. Signs of this are visible in emerging sectors of cooperation such as energy security, food security, mineral resources and raw materials, health and pharmaceuticals, infrastructure such as railways and steel, science and technology, including nuclear, space and digital, skilling and education and tourism, culture and people-to-people contacts. The Russian Far East and its long Arctic coastline are futuristic areas of interest to India. The bilateral investment target has been revised to $50 billion by 2025. Delhi will capitalise on this friendship to align it with India’s contemporary and long-term needs.

For Russia, a growing India is a geostrategic and geo-economic asset. The Indian market can create virtuous cycles of returns for Russia. A ready example is the explosion in India’s import of Russian oil from $2 billion in 2022 to over $61 billion in 2024. Strategically, Russia sees India as an indispensable partner for the success of its balancing and hedging policy in Asia. India too views Russia through the prism of its Eurasia policy. Both countries can reinforce each other’s actions to meet new and emerging threats, protect the global commons and build a more stable world order.

The relationship is not without challenges. Some predate the Ukraine crisis, and some are its consequences. The former include the knowledge deficit, unfamiliarity with each other’s political and cultural systems and poor physical connectivity. The latter are factors beyond India’s control, originating from Russia’s confrontation with the West. Unilateral sanctions against Russia as part of the policy to punish Russia and cut it off from the international system are having a perceptible impact on India-Russia economic cooperation. Defence cooperation is also under stress, but India has no option but to maintain the serviceability of the existing stock of Russian military equipment. The domination of oil in the trade basket has resulted not only in a huge adverse and unsustainable trade balance for India but also a payments problem.

India and Russia share a common neighbourhood, but not a common border. The threat from terrorism and radicalisation is common to both. They both speak of multipolarity but interpret it differently. India is a non-western country but it is not anti-West. These different approaches will be tested in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) groupings. There is acceptance of each other’s historical experiences and little desire to shape one in the image of the other. The goodwill at the popular level for each other combined with pragmatism and respect for each other’s core concerns can potentially form the nucleus of a new compact between the two countries that fits in with the era of fluidity in today’s global order.

For good reason, there is a mutual advantage and interest in keeping the relationship on an even keel despite the headwinds.

Pankaj Saran is a former Indian ambassador to Russia and deputy national security advisor. The views expressed are personal