How Wayanad district in Kerala used weather data to turn climate resilient

And while that might have been a catastrophic event, the climate crisis continues to affect farmers in multiple ways from erratic weather patterns to unpredictable markets. Last year, the southwest monsoon cast a shadow over the farming community. Usually blessed with abundant rainfall, 2023 presented a stark contrast where deficient rain not only delayed sowing activities but also threatened the survival of indigenous rice varieties, a staple in Wayanad's agricultural landscape. Last year, Kerala also experienced its lowest June rainfall in 122 years, and the state received 45% less rain than normal for the season.

“The biggest problem for us has always been uncertainty,” said Rajesh Krishnan, a seasoned farmer (45), and chief executive officer of the Thirunelly Agri Producer Company Ltd (TAPCo), which works with local rice farmers. “We never know if the rain will be a boon or a bane.”

“A lack of sufficient rain had an impact on farming expenses and yields. In August, the monsoon went on a continuous break for 11 days. Farmers who were banking on August rains for replanting seedlings faced extreme difficulty,” Krishnan said.

The drought-like conditions severely affected other crops too, like pepper, cardamom, ginger, and coffee. The livelihood of farmers was also adversely affected by the delay in the pollination of pepper plants and the flowering of coffee.

A paradigm shift in agricultural practices has, however, helped mitigate some of this uncertainty.

Wayanad's strategy hinges on mixing traditional heirloom varieties and locally adapted ecological practices. “We’ve learned that our traditional varieties, being locally adapted, respond best to our unique conditions — soil, water, weather, and biodiversity," Krishnan said. This approach ensured economic viability and ecological sustainability.

It also depends on accurate weather forecasting.

Hyper-local weather forecasts include daily rain forecasts, combined with weather-based crop advisories to the district administration and public. These emanate from a robust network jointly developed by the Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology (HCEWB) (a research organisation based in Kalpetta, Kerala) and the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) of the Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT) in Wayanad. The data collated from the regional weather radar and local climate research stations flows through TAPCo and is relayed to over 5,000 Wayanad farmers daily, culminating in precise crop advisories.

A localised weather forecasting model in such an area would involve collecting hyper-local meteorological data through a network of weather stations. These stations are strategically placed to capture the unique microclimates of the region. Data on temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind patterns are collected and analysed using advanced algorithms. This information is then used to generate highly accurate, location-specific forecasts. These forecasts are crucial for farmers in planning agricultural activities, enabling them to make informed decisions about planting, irrigation, and harvesting.

“We started the local level forecasting after the 2018 Kerala floods and landslides that upset the agricultural systems in the region,” said CK Vishnudas, director, HCEWB. “At present, we are giving one-week-long forecasts to the farming community of Wayanad and a daily update on weather conditions. This helps farmers to plan their agricultural operations in accordance with the weather warnings.”

"The weather information helps us make crucial decisions on sowing, crop management, and harvesting," Krishnan noted, adding that data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is also one of the sources his farmers use.

Earlier this month, the IMD launched the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) to enhance the production and utilisation of climate information and services.

“This initiative is part of IMD's strategy to improve its forecasting capabilities and use the latest technological tools to predict extreme weather and climate events more accurately,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, adding that the framework aims to serve as a platform for the production, availability, delivery, and application of science-based climate monitoring and prediction services. The IMD is keen to work with various agencies and institutes to help utilise such data for accurate weather forecasting, especially by sectors that are vulnerable to climate change — agriculture, renewable energy production, even tourism.

The hyper-local forecasting in Wayanad, “is an excellent example of how IMD’s data and forecasts, currently being issued at the district and block level, is further validated and disseminated at a hyperlocal level to guide farmers. We are hoping that such hyperlocal forecasting and guidance is replicated across several other regions in the country in a collaborative manner with IMD,” Mohapatra said.

Farmers, academicians and civil society members have built a collective effort in the form of a farmers’ knowledge and resource centre called Karshaka Vijnana Vibhava Kendra (KVVK) that epitomises the spirit of Wayanad's journey. As a network, KVVK is dedicated to fostering climate resilient ecological agriculture.

“What we face is not just a series of bad years — it's a changing climate," Krishnan said.

Accordingly, Wayanad's vision extends beyond the present. The district is in the process of creating a framework for climate resilient agriculture, focusing on weather and soil as primary elements. This framework aims to assist not just farmers in decision-making but also civil society organisations, local governments, and institutions in their natural resource management policies and plans. "It's a holistic approach, considering everything from cropping patterns to watershed management," Krishnan said.

The economic impact of such a system cannot be underlined enough.

In the horticulture sector — significant to the state where plantation of coffee, tea, and pepper forms 41.1%, 37.2% and 21.7% respectively of the annual agricultural production, according to the department of economics and statistics, Government of Kerala — such forecasting helps effective planning, risk mitigation and resource management, A Ganeshamurthy, emeritus scientist at Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)-Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bengaluru, said.

“Perennial horticultural crops like fruits and plantations are highly sensitive to weather conditions,” he said. Accurate weather forecasting helps farmers plan and execute cultivation practices such as irrigation, pruning, and harvesting based on anticipated weather patterns, and prepone or advance flowering through management manipulations.

Badri Chatterjee works as a Senior Communications Manager (South Asia) at ICLEI South Asia, that works on local action for global sustainability and support cities to advance sustainability at the local, regional and sub-national levels in South Asia. The views expressed are personal.