After the close Lok Sabha contest, how will the two Senas fare in assembly, civic polls?

MUMBAI: On June 4, the Lok Sabha election results that Maharashtra had been waiting for with bated breath vindicated Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) to a large extent. The party, which had fought with its back to the wall after the vertical split and the Election Commission (EC) taking away its name and symbol, won nine seats. Chief minister Eknath Shinde, on the other hand, despite being in power, getting help from the BJP, the party name and symbol and over 40 MLAs in his support, got two seats less than Thackeray.

However, unlike the NCP-versus-NCP battle, in which NCP founder Sharad Pawar emerged victorious and Dy CM Ajit Pawar was a complete loser, both Thackeray and CM Shinde gained on different levels. Thackeray proved his control over Sena stronghold Mumbai by winning three of the four seats the party contested and also won three of four contested seats in Marathwada, the second bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena. But Shinde, with the BJP’s help, succeeded in getting one seat in Mumbai, taking over the Thane-Konkan region and winning Aurangabad.

The close fight between the two factions will continue in the upcoming assembly and municipal corporation elections. Thackeray’s winning more seats overall has boosted the morale of his party workers and local leaders in Mumbai, Nashik, Marathwada and western Vidarbha. As a result, many Sena (UBT) leaders currently on the fence are likely to remain with him, which will help the party in the assembly elections. Thackeray will also continue as a major campaigner and the face of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the assembly elections, which could help his camp better its performance. Speculation has also begun that some of the MLAs in the Shinde camp could come back to the Thackeray faction, which has given a psychological edge to Thackeray camp leaders in the rural areas.

Shinde and his alliance partners, the BJP-NCP, however, have completely wiped out Thackeray in Thane and the Konkan region, known as a traditional Sena bastion. Their performance is also alarming for one more reason: the alliance has scored over the Sena (UBT) chief at the level of perception. This could cost the Thackeray faction in the assembly and municipal corporation elections.

When it comes to MLAs, the Thackeray faction does not have a single MLA in Thane-Palghar’s 24 seats while Shinde has six. In Mumbai, Thackeray has eight MLAs and Shinde has six. In the Mumbai-to-Konkan belt, which has 75 MLAs, Thackeray has only 11 now as compared to Shinde, who has 18. This could give an edge to Shinde in the assembly elections. Shinde could demand more seats in these, citing his performance in the Lok Sabha elections. He could also, using the perception of Thackeray being wiped out from Konkan, try and woo more local leaders from the Thackeray faction to his side.

Sena (UBT) candidate Amol Kirtikar’s defeat from Mumbai North West in the Lok Sabha polls is attributed to the party’s failure to get a good lead from the Andheri East and Dindoshi assembly segments represented by sitting MLAs Rutuja Latke and Sunil Prabhu respectively. Although Arvind Sawant won from Mumbai South, the poor show in the Worli assembly constituency, which is represented by MLA Aaditya Thackeray and has two MLCs, has raised eyebrows in political circles. Observers see it as an indication of Thackeray losing the support of the Marathi manoos.

The battle for the municipal corporations will be more aggressive. Thackeray, despite not being in power for 15 years, remained a major player in state politics, with control over most of the big municipal corporations in MMR such as the BMC, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivali and was a major player in civic bodies such as Navi Mumbai, Ulhasnagar and Mira-Bhayandar. But now, Shinde, along with the BJP, has become stronger in Thane, Kalyan-Dombivali, Badlapur, Ambarnath, Ulhasnagar, Palghar, Vasai-Virar, Mira-Bhayandar, Panvel and Navi Mumbai. He has already got most of the former corporators in these local bodies to switch to his side. For Thackeray, the biggest challenge will be to retain power in the BMC, as the combined might of the Shinde Sena and BJP stands at over 130 former corporators in 227 wards.

Shinde Sena spokesperson Manisha Kayande said that the party would analyse the Lok Sabha results and gauge strengths and weaknesses for the assembly and local bodies elections. “Many Sena (UBT) leaders, who were on the fence till the Lok Sabha election results came out, will now join our party,” she claimed. “Many who fail to get tickets from the Shiv Sena (UBT) will also come to us. It will increase our strength in the assembly and local bodies elections.”

Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson MLC Sachin Ahir said that the party’s defeat in the Mumbai North West seat and MMR was due to newly settled voters from Gujarat and North India, who were tapped by the BJP and Shinde. “In the coming days, our party will conduct meetings to identify the issues in these areas and take initiatives to reach out to voters,” he said. “We hope this will change the equations in the coming assembly and local bodies elections.” Ahir added that Thackeray and the Sena (UBT) were “surprised” by the Konkan results but would soon look into the matter and try to rectify things.

Senior political analyst Prakash Akolkar said that Thackeray had emerged victorious in the battle with Shinde against tremendous odds. “For decades, the Shiv Sena was known to voters through its bow-and-arrow symbol,” he said. “In these elections, that went to Shinde. Thackeray fought with the new mashaal symbol and only one-third of the undivided Sena’s MLAs by his side but has successfully established the symbol, which will make it much easier for him to campaign in the assembly elections. He has also emerged as the face of the MVA and will continue to lead in the assembly elections too. If the coordination in the MVA continues, Thackeray will be successful in the assembly elections.”

Akolkar expressed doubts about whether the BJP and RSS would continue to help Shinde the same way. “Shinde won seven seats in the Lok Sabha elections but don’t forget that the BJP and RSS helped him a lot to win the elections for Narendra Modi,” he said. “In the assembly elections they will work to bring the BJP back in power on its own, and this could damage Shinde’s prospects.”

Akolkar opined that the local bodies elections would see a very tough battle between Thackeray and Shinde-BJP. “Thackeray will face a big challenge retaining power in Mumbai and Thane-Konkan region,” he said.