Keeping up with UP | When the chief minister becomes a poll issue, the top casualty could be governance

In the run-up to and during the election, Yogi had himself become a poll issue when Rajputs at their panchayats in western UP had spoken about his “removal from office within two months of winning the election”.

Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal added fuel to the fire by endorsing the speculation soon after he was released from jail on May 10. Kejriwal had said: “Yogi will be removed within two months if Modi wins third term”.

As no emphatic denial came from any BJP leader, Yogi himself retorted on May 17: “Will not think twice before quitting for the sake of party’s ideology and commitment”.

Those who know Yogi insist that he would quit if pressured beyond a point, return to his religious order and revive the Yuva Hindu Vahini, a political outfit that has been in hibernation ever since Yogi became the chief minister in 2017. The resignation of Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis was also seen as a ploy to pressure Yogi to quit taking moral responsibility for the party’s poor show in the state. Kejriwal had also claimed, “Amit Shah will be PM’’, which was strongly rebutted by Shah himself.

It’s not the change of leadership alone in UP. Instead, the BJP may go for a large-scale reshuffle at both government and party levels in the state as the loss in UP, their strongest state until this election, could easily be the most unexpected.

After all, the ministers had been allocated constituencies and the BJP candidates had lost the seats despite their monitoring and control. Some heads may roll after a complete review of the election results at both state and central levels.

But as of now, of the four prime movers and shakers in UP, three are back in the saddle – Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh.

This was yet another reason for Yogi's camp to heave a sigh of relief besides the Prime Minister’s pat on his back, which did not go unnoticed in a crowded space where senior BJP leaders had lined up to congratulate Modi on his election as leader of the Lok Sabha.

And now after the swearing-in ceremony of the new government, meetings are on in Delhi to discuss the state's performance and Yogi's role.

Generally, the bureaucracy as well as the common man want this political uncertainty to end as it impacts the governance of the state.

The chief secretary of the state DS Mishra, considered Delhi’s nominee, got his third six-month extension in December and his term is ending on June 30. About half a dozen hopefuls were deprived of the opportunity to become chief secretary. Mishra was posted to UP, two days prior to his superannuation, on December 31, 2021.

Similarly, the state has an acting director general of police (DGP) -- fourth in a row for nearly two years.

The Yogi camp is of the view that he cannot be singularly held responsible for the party’s poor show in the 2024 polls. Though he had minimal say in ticket distribution, he extensively campaigned in the state holding over 200 rallies and a number of roadshows despite the sweltering heat.

The Lokniti-CSDS report confirmed public anger against several sitting MPs. It stated: “Several state BJP leaders acknowledged that many sitting MPs of the party had not kept in touch with the electorate in their respective constituencies. Yet, the party renominated them. Consequently, as many as 26 sitting MPs lost the elections.”

Yogi's supporters, however, feel that the people voted for the double-engine government and women rewarded him with their vote for improving the law and order situation in the state. They deny any sabotage by him and insist that he made every effort to quell the unrest in the Rajput community, which was triggered in western UP.

However, the Lokniti-CSDS report data showed: “That the general/upper caste Brahmin, Rajput and Vaishya largely favoured the BJP and close to nine of every 10 Rajput voters favoured the BJP."

On the other hand, Yogi’s detractors find fault in his style of functioning, pro-Rajput stance in administration, failure to address the growing demand for jobs and as per the Lokniti-CSDS survey: “Frequent leaks of examination papers for government jobs further eroded public trust”.

The bulldozer campaign worked both ways: While many hailed Yogifor bulldozing the homes of criminals, the poor turned away from the BJP after their houses were demolished in different parts of the state for varied reasons.

But the reasons are political including the annoyance of the party's rank and file in their own government.

The Lokniti-CSDS report said: “First, the BJP, known for its social engineering was overpowered by Mr (Akshilesh) Yadav’s alternative social engineering formula of PDA under which he distributed tickets mostly to backward castes and Dalits.’

The party's high command had suffered from a similar dilemma in the 1990s when it was forced to propel a backward face of the party to dispel its image of being an upper caste party: Kalyan Singh became that face but the party had the tallest Brahmin leader from Lucknow, Atal Bihari Vajpayee to balance.

Who will be BJP’s Kalyan Singh now?

Sunita Aron is a consulting editor with the HT based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.