New housing supply expected to witness 13% drop; sales down 2% y-o-y across top cities

New housing supply is expected to witness a drop of 13% across the top nine cities and sales are expected to fall by 2% in the April to June period compared to the same period last year, a report by PropEquity, a real estate data and analytics firm has said.

The nine cities profiled included Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Pune and Thane..

New housing unit launches in the top 9 tier-1 cities are expected to dip by 13% on a year-on-year basis from 1,11,657 launches in Q2, 2033 to 97,331 in Q2 2024 and sales are expected to go down by two percent from 1,21,856 in Q2 2023 to 1,19,901 in Q2 2024, according to the report. The Delhi-NCR real estate market has emerged as the best performer in terms of launches and sales.

According to the report, cities like Hyderabad and Pune may experience a notable decline, with new launches in Hyderabad decreasing by 36% Year-on-Year while Pune's new launches may dip by 47%. However, Delhi-NCR may see 95% y-o-y increase in new launches, rising from 5,708 units in Q2, 2023 to 11,118 units in Q2, 2024.

PropEquity released the housing sales data for April-June, 10 days before the end of the quarter.

On a Quarter on Quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the launches witnessed a seven percent decline with 97,331 units getting launched in Q2 2024 as compared to 1,04,391 units in Q1 2024.

Quarterly sales were down 18% to 1,19,901 units in Q2 2024 compared to the previous quarter which stood at 1,46,1947 units, the report said.

PropEquity Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Samir Jasuja said that while the January-March period was an extraordinary quarter with the highest absorption/ sales ever witnessed in India. The April-June quarter is usually the slowest quarter compared to other quarters with respect to supply and absorption/sales.

Also, the reason for the supply coming down marginally was because Q2 2024 is an election quarter and some developers held back their launches during the time, he said.

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Having said that, the 20% higher sales as compared to new supply signifies upswing and good health in residential real estate continues and the market continues to be robust post Covid-19," he added.

Sales and launches strong in Delhi-NCR

The report said that the Delhi NCR real estate market is perhaps the only city among top nine cities that is likely to see an increase in new launches and sales on Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y basis. Sales of residential properties are likely to rise to 10,198 units during April-June this year from 9,635 units in the year-ago period.

The Mumbai real estate market on the other hand is expected to report a six percent fall in terms of launches on both Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y basis followed by sales going down by 25% on Q-o-Q basis and 1% on Y-o-Y basis.

Housing sales in Mumbai are estimated to fall marginally to 13,032 units from 13,219 units. Navi Mumbai is likely to witness a 36% growth to 9,035 units from 6,640 units.

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Housing sales in Pune are expected to fall 15% to 22,482 units from 26,586 units. In Thane, the sales of residential properties may rise 9% to 25,041 units in April-June from 22,956 units in the year-ago period.

Housing sales in Bengaluru are likely to rise to 15,127 units from 15,088 units. The Bengaluru real estate market may see an increase of 21% in Y-o-Y when it comes to launches but on Q-o-Q basis the launches may dip by 8%. Sales on the other hand may remain stagnant at around 15,000 units on Y-o-Y basis, but on Q-o-Q basis the sales may dip by 14%.

In Chennai, the sales are likely to fall to 4,841 units from 4,950 units.

Sales in Hyderabad are estimated to decline 20% to 15,016 units from 18,757 units.

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In Kolkata, sales are likely to rise to 5,130 units from 4,025 units.