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Bashir Ali Abbas

Articles by Bashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | Drones and deterrence in the Israel-Hezbollah dynamic

Hezbollah's unprecedented drone footage over Israel's Haifa Port represents a strategic shift in the use of drones.

An Israeli fighter jet releases flares, and a drone is seen from Rafah, Gaza Strip, on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kreem Hana)(AP)

Analysis

Published on Jun 23, 2024 10:00 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | The BRICS has cemented its position on Israel

For a grouping that resisted any addition of full members since South Africa in 2010, the new members can significantly influence the nature of summit outcomes

Analysis

Published on Jun 16, 2024 11:08 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | A Damocles’ sword hangs at the Israel-Lebanon border

As the threat of a wider regional war looms, key to understanding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is the question of where the locus of the present conflict lies

(FILES) An Israeli strike illuminates the sky above the southern Lebanese village of Khiam late on April 17, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.(Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)(AFP)

Analysis

Published on Jun 09, 2024 09:30 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Under the eyes of two courts, Israel pushes into Rafah as Washington wavers

In its May 24 order, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in Rafah”.

Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Friday, May 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)(AP)

Analysis

Published on Jun 02, 2024 01:56 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Why President Raisi's death rattles Iran’s leadership succession plan

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi dies in a helicopter crash, marking a sudden end to his controversial presidency and potential succession as Supreme Leader.

Hardliners in Iran have further consolidated power with the 2024 Parliamentary polls having thrown up a conservative majority. (AFP)

World News

Updated on May 21, 2024 07:11 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Ebrahim Raisi’s death ends a troubled presidency; rattles Iran’s succession plan

Besides the death of Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Abdollahian’s death takes out another skilled diplomat well-seasoned in engaging key neighbours

People hold up posters of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a mourning ceremony for him at Vali-e-Asr square in downtown Tehran, Iran,(AP)

Analysis

Updated on May 20, 2024 11:30 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

On Chabahar and US sanctions, a litmus test for New Delhi and Washington

Chabahar is arguably a litmus test for how well the US recognises India’s value in deterring China and in increasing Iran’s own stakes in regional stability

Analysis

Published on May 17, 2024 12:41 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Israel's increasingly unpopular war in Gaza is to Turkey’s delight

Presently, the global flow is against Israel, with a ceasefire as the biggest imperative (which is in fact what Turkey has made trade contingent on)

Smoke from an Israeli military strike in the distance seen from al-Mawasi on the outskirts of Rafah, Gaza, on Thursday, May 9, 2024. Israeli Prime Minister�Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel must go into Rafah to finish off the remaining battalions of Hamas, the US-designated terrorist group that killed 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped about 250 last Oct. 7. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg(Bloomberg)

Analysis

Published on May 11, 2024 12:58 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Blinken’s 7th Middle East tour, and the Rafah litmus test

While the US continues to support Egypt and Qatar, it is also focused on a greater role for Saudi Arabia to ensure regional stability and reconstruction in Gaza

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with the families of the hostages, kidnapped in the deadly October 7, 2024 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, May 1, 2024. (Evelyn Hockstein/Pool Photo via AP)(AP)

Analysis

Published on May 03, 2024 12:29 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

In Chabahar, the city of four springs, India is stuck in a long winter

The Chabahar port’s development has been impacted by geopolitical tensions. Despite challenges, India remains committed to leveraging Chabahar for connectivity

India’s enduring interest in Chabahar port has multiple drivers, including both positive (enablers) and negative (disablers).

Analysis

Published on Apr 25, 2024 11:43 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

The game of deterrence between Iran and Israel has changed

Iran's attack on Israel on April 13, crossed Tel Aviv's red line. Until it reciprocates (if it does), it is Israel that is caught in a commitment trap

An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel. (REUTERS FILE)

Analysis

Published on Apr 18, 2024 08:10 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Amidst the Iran-Israel escalation loop, India is not spoilt for choice

While the crew of captured ships have traditionally been released unharmed, the current crisis presents a new frontier for Indian foreign policy

An official slides down a rope during a helicopter raid on MSC Aries ship.(via REUTERS)

Analysis

Published on Apr 15, 2024 03:48 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Saudi-Pakistan joint statement on Kashmir shows Riyadh’s balancing act

The recent joint statement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, calling for dialogue to resolve the Kashmir dispute, marks a subtle shift in Riyadh's stance.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Sheikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa in his palace on the eve of 29th Ramadan, during the holy month of Ramadan, in the holy city of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, April 7, 2024. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY(via REUTERS)

Analysis

Published on Apr 11, 2024 11:25 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | Why did Israel attack the Iranian Consulate in Syria?

The longer and wider Israel’s war, the less sympathy it gets internationally, and the lesser the chances of Arab-Israeli normalisation coming back on track

A satellite image shows the Iranian embassy and consulate following a suspected Israeli strike, in Damascus, Syria April 2, 2024 in this handout image. Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES. MANDATORY CREDIT. DO NOT CROP OR REMOVE WATERMARK(via REUTERS)

Analysis

Updated on Apr 04, 2024 10:17 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

With the end of Ramzan nearing, has the UNSC’s call for a ceasefire helped?

As the death toll in Gaza approaches 33,000, the March 25 resolution has so far failed to create binding obligations on Israel to halt its military campaign

FILE PHOTO: Members of the United Nations Security Council meet on the day of a vote on a Gaza resolution that demands an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan leading to a permanent sustainable ceasefire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, at U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S., March 25, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo(REUTERS)

Analysis

Published on Apr 03, 2024 06:13 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | The Islamic State Khorasan province is coming of age

While the motivations of the IS behind the deadly bombing of Crocus City Hall in Moscow are still unclear, its historic focus on Russia is illuminating

A view shows the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following the shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, on March 22, 2024.(AFP)

Analysis

Published on Mar 26, 2024 07:26 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

The Indian Navy’s anti-piracy operations are geopolitically vital

The northern Indian Ocean has witnessed a burst of activity recently. However, the Navy’s increasing presence in NIO is driven by more than just anti-piracy.

New Delhi, Mar 21 (ANI): Indian Navy's INS Tir and INS Sujata participate in the second edition of a joint maritime exercise India Mozambique Tanzania (IMT) Tri-Lateral (TRILAT) being held from March 21-29. (ANI Photo)(Indian Navy)

Analysis

Published on Mar 22, 2024 04:16 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Analysis of India's voting patterns on Israel-Palestine issues at the UN

While the India-Israel relationship has gone from strength to strength, India’s support of UN resolutions critical of Israel has remained largely unchanged

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield listens as Algerian Ambassador to the UN Amar Bendjama speaks during a UN Security Council meeting on the Israel-Hamas war, at UN Headquarters in New York City on February 20, 2024 (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP)(AFP)

Analysis

Published on Mar 21, 2024 12:06 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

How the Tehran-Riyadh rapprochement holds out, a year on

March 10 marked one year since Iran and Saudi Arabia entered into a Beijing-brokered reconciliation. Now the Gaza war presents new opportunities and challenges

Wang Yi (centre), a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Ali Shamkhani (right), the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Minister of State and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban pose for pictures during a meeting in Beijing, China. (REUTERS)

Analysis

Published on Mar 15, 2024 05:36 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

What a history of hostage swaps can tell us about a potential deal in Gaza

During a peak in conflict, a deal allows both sides to meet their politico-military objectives. So what’s different this time around?

A person rides a bicycle past photos of hostages who were kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel March 6, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins(REUTERS)

Analysis

Updated on Mar 06, 2024 07:17 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | The case 52 states made against Israel before the ICJ

The court recently offered provisional measures over Israel’s violations of the Genocide Convention. Now it'll adjudicate on legal impact of Israel's polices

Public hearings were held between February 19 and 26 at the International Court of Justice on the

Analysis

Published on Mar 03, 2024 07:45 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Between the Gulf and the Sea, a changing geopolitical scenario

The Red Sea is the eye of the storm today, with its winds changing West Asian international relations for actors both within and outside the region

An Israeli Navy missile boat is seen off the coast of Eilat, October 31, 2023. (Israel Defense Forces)

Opinion

Updated on Feb 20, 2024 08:44 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

The United States has subtly shifted its stand towards the Israel-Gaza war

From outright support to characterising Israel's offensive on the Palestinians as "over the top", the US needs to protect its interests in West Asia's crises

Neighbors inspect the rubble of the Hasouna family house, which was struck by an Israeli airstrike during an operation to rescue two hostages in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024. Ibrahim Hasouna, who was away at the time of the airstrike, says his entire family was killed, including his parents, two brothers, his sister-in-law and three nieces and nephews. AP/PTI(AP02_14_2024_000001B)(AP)

Opinion

Published on Feb 14, 2024 05:27 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Will these mediators help bring about a ceasefire in Gaza?

Egypt and Qatar can not only help negotiate a peace deal between Israel and Gaza, but also bring long-term stability to the West Asia region

Smoke billows over the southern Lebanese border village of El-Khiam during Israeli bombardment on February 7, 2024, amid cross-border tensions with Lebanon, as fighting continues between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)(AFP)

Opinion

Updated on Feb 07, 2024 09:00 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | Killing of US forces in Jordan & Washington’s response

The destabilisation of the US-Iraq relationship is the latest strategic butterfly effect of the Gaza war; its spillover effects have now hit Jordan

A satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC of military base Tower 22, located in northeastern Jordan. On January 28, three personnel of the United States Army were killed in a drone strike(AP)

Analysis

Updated on Feb 04, 2024 04:50 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | ICJ interim order is a signal for peace in the region

A political solution to the Israel-Palestine question shall act as a cushion to absorb any International Court of Justice's verdict on genocide in the future

Judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rule on emergency measures against Israel following accusations by South Africa that the Israeli military operation in Gaza is a state-led genocide, in The Hague, Netherlands, January 26, 2024.(REUTERS/Piroschka van de Wouw)

Analysis

Published on Jan 28, 2024 01:18 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Eye on the Middle East | Why did Iran open a fresh front with Pakistan?

Two Islamic Republics strike each other purportedly to wipe out separatist militant groups. This fresh hostility is undergirded by a history of suspicion

Miniature soldiers are seen in front of Iranian and Pakistani flags in this illustration taken,(REUTERS)

Opinion

Published on Jan 19, 2024 09:17 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Sectarian flames in West Asia’s furnace: Why did the Islamic State attack Iran?

The IS attack in Iran is the result of a long-standing ideological war, which gets lost in the fog of political crises in the Middle East

People pray over the flag-draped coffins of victims of Wednesday's bomb explosion during their funeral ceremony in the city of Kerman about 510 miles (820 kms) southeast of the capital Tehran, Iran, Friday, Jan. 5, 2024. Iran on Friday mourned those slain in an Islamic State group-claimed suicide bombing targeting a commemoration for a general slain in a U.S. drone strike in 2020. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)(AP)

Opinion

Updated on Jan 09, 2024 09:27 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Are the Houthis taking the Israel-Palestine conflict into new waters?

A militia involved in Yemen’s civil war attacked vessels in the Red Sea. What’s curious is how the Middle East is responding this time around. Here’s why

FILE PHOTO: Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS//File Photo(via REUTERS)

Opinion

Published on Jan 05, 2024 08:30 AM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

Death of a Messenger: What Saleh al-Arouri’s death means for Hamas

A 1991 Hebron University Hamas recruit, Arouri handled a range of tasks for Hamas - recruitments, donations and funds, as well as weapons procurement.

A woman touches a picture of deputy head of Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed by what Lebanese and Palestinian security sources say was a drone strike by Israel, as mourners gather during his funeral in Beirut, Lebanon January 4, 2024. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied that it killed Arouri in the attack. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir(REUTERS)

World News

Published on Jan 04, 2024 10:14 PM IST

ByBashir Ali Abbas

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Bashir Ali Abbas

Hezbollah's unprecedented drone footage over Israel's Haifa Port represents a strategic shift in the use of drones.

For a grouping that resisted any addition of full members since South Africa in 2010, the new members can significantly influence the nature of summit outcomes

As the threat of a wider regional war looms, key to understanding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is the question of where the locus of the present conflict lies

In its May 24 order, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in Rafah”.

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi dies in a helicopter crash, marking a sudden end to his controversial presidency and potential succession as Supreme Leader.

Besides the death of Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Abdollahian’s death takes out another skilled diplomat well-seasoned in engaging key neighbours

Chabahar is arguably a litmus test for how well the US recognises India’s value in deterring China and in increasing Iran’s own stakes in regional stability

Presently, the global flow is against Israel, with a ceasefire as the biggest imperative (which is in fact what Turkey has made trade contingent on)

While the US continues to support Egypt and Qatar, it is also focused on a greater role for Saudi Arabia to ensure regional stability and reconstruction in Gaza

The Chabahar port’s development has been impacted by geopolitical tensions. Despite challenges, India remains committed to leveraging Chabahar for connectivity

Iran's attack on Israel on April 13, crossed Tel Aviv's red line. Until it reciprocates (if it does), it is Israel that is caught in a commitment trap

While the crew of captured ships have traditionally been released unharmed, the current crisis presents a new frontier for Indian foreign policy

The recent joint statement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, calling for dialogue to resolve the Kashmir dispute, marks a subtle shift in Riyadh's stance.

The longer and wider Israel’s war, the less sympathy it gets internationally, and the lesser the chances of Arab-Israeli normalisation coming back on track

As the death toll in Gaza approaches 33,000, the March 25 resolution has so far failed to create binding obligations on Israel to halt its military campaign

While the motivations of the IS behind the deadly bombing of Crocus City Hall in Moscow are still unclear, its historic focus on Russia is illuminating

The northern Indian Ocean has witnessed a burst of activity recently. However, the Navy’s increasing presence in NIO is driven by more than just anti-piracy.

While the India-Israel relationship has gone from strength to strength, India’s support of UN resolutions critical of Israel has remained largely unchanged

March 10 marked one year since Iran and Saudi Arabia entered into a Beijing-brokered reconciliation. Now the Gaza war presents new opportunities and challenges

During a peak in conflict, a deal allows both sides to meet their politico-military objectives. So what’s different this time around?

The court recently offered provisional measures over Israel’s violations of the Genocide Convention. Now it'll adjudicate on legal impact of Israel's polices

The Red Sea is the eye of the storm today, with its winds changing West Asian international relations for actors both within and outside the region

From outright support to characterising Israel's offensive on the Palestinians as "over the top", the US needs to protect its interests in West Asia's crises

Egypt and Qatar can not only help negotiate a peace deal between Israel and Gaza, but also bring long-term stability to the West Asia region

The destabilisation of the US-Iraq relationship is the latest strategic butterfly effect of the Gaza war; its spillover effects have now hit Jordan

A political solution to the Israel-Palestine question shall act as a cushion to absorb any International Court of Justice's verdict on genocide in the future

Two Islamic Republics strike each other purportedly to wipe out separatist militant groups. This fresh hostility is undergirded by a history of suspicion

The IS attack in Iran is the result of a long-standing ideological war, which gets lost in the fog of political crises in the Middle East

A militia involved in Yemen’s civil war attacked vessels in the Red Sea. What’s curious is how the Middle East is responding this time around. Here’s why

A 1991 Hebron University Hamas recruit, Arouri handled a range of tasks for Hamas - recruitments, donations and funds, as well as weapons procurement.

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